Trump predicts oil prices drop precipitously after Iran war victory
- President Trump predicts oil prices will drop precipitously after a US victory in Iran, with gas potentially falling below $2.
- Gasoline hit a record Labor Day high of $4.15/gallon, up from $3.20 a year earlier and above the 2012 peak of $3.82.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts oil could fall to $40-$50/barrel post-war, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright declined to guarantee lower prices.
- Brent Crude traded near $97.05 and WTI Crude at $92.45 as markets remained closed for Labor Day.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
President Donald Trump predicted on Monday that oil prices would fall "precipitously" once the United States wins its war with Iran, forecasting gasoline costs could eventually dip below $2 per gallon.
The assertion comes as US fuel prices hit their highest Labor Day level on record, creating a stark contrast between political projections and current market realities.
Record Highs vs Political Forecasts
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average for gasoline reached $4.15 a gallon on Monday. This figure represents a significant increase from roughly $3.20 a year earlier and surpasses the previous Labor Day high of $3.82 set in 2012.
Diesel prices also surged, hitting a record $5.9015.
Trump stated on Truth Social that oil prices would drop "like everything else is dropping (but more!)" upon winning the war. He added, "Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon."
Official Responses and Market Skepticism
Energy Secretary Chris Wright declined to guarantee falling prices when pressed by CNN on Sunday. He noted only that gasoline futures suggest prices are "more likely to go down than go up."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a more specific prediction, suggesting oil could sink to $40 to $50 a barrel after the war ends due to a coming supply surge. Investor Peter Schiff dismissed these claims, stating, "don’t believe anything this guy says. I don’t think he believes what he is saying either."
Geopolitical Tensions Persist
The conflict shows no immediate signs of resolution. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on X that American oil and gas companies operating in the region remain exposed to retaliation. He wrote, "Strike our assets and you get struck," citing the sprawling nature of the production chain.
Domestic political opposition also intensified. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called the war "illegal and disastrous," blaming it for record-high gas prices. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) argued that ending the war would lower costs.
Current Market Prices
At the time of writing, Brent Crude traded near $97.05, up 0.05% a barrel. WTI Crude rose 1.06% to $92.45 per barrel. Markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.
ETF Performance
| Fund | Symbol | Change |
|---|---|---|
| United States Brent Oil Fund | BNO | +0.38% |
| ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil | UCO | +1.24% |
| United States Oil Fund | USO | -0.091% |
Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate the Brent Oil Fund has a Momentum score in the 92nd percentile.
How might the threat of retaliatory strikes on US energy assets in the region impact global supply chain stability and insurance premiums for oil companies?
What specific supply-side mechanisms could drive oil prices to the $40-$50 range post-conflict, and how likely is a sudden surge in production given current geopolitical constraints?
Could sustained high gasoline prices exceeding $4.15 per gallon significantly alter US consumer spending patterns ahead of the upcoming election cycle?
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