Silver Prices Could Hit ₹3.94 Lakh Per Kg as SAMCO Predicts Extended Rally
SAMCO Securities predicts silver prices could reach ₹3.94 lakh per kg, with technical analysis showing targets at ₹2.96 lakh and ₹3.56 lakh based on Fibonacci extensions. Silver March futures gained 4% to ₹2.86 lakh following favorable U.S. inflation data. Supply constraints from by-product mining and limited global output growth below 2% support the bullish outlook, though risks include dollar strength and potential economic slowdown.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
SAMCO Securities has issued a bold prediction that silver prices could surge to ₹3.94 lakh per kilogram, continuing the precious metal's impressive rally that has already delivered over 25% gains. The domestic brokerage firm outlined multiple technical targets based on Fibonacci extension analysis, suggesting significant upside potential remains for the white metal.
Technical Analysis Points to Higher Targets
SAMCO's technical analysis reveals a clear roadmap for silver's potential price trajectory. The brokerage noted that the earlier resistance zone around ₹2.59 lakh has now transformed into crucial support during any interim pullbacks.
| Technical Level: | Price Target |
|---|---|
| Current Support: | ₹2.59 lakh |
| First Major Target (2.618 Fibonacci): | ₹2.96 lakh |
| Second Target (3.618 Fibonacci): | ₹3.56 lakh |
| Extended Target: | ₹3.94 lakh |
"The 2.618 Fibonacci extension aligns near the ₹2.96 lakh zone, which becomes the first major medium term target," SAMCO stated. Beyond this level, the 3.618 Fibonacci extension points toward the ₹3.56 lakh region, while an extended move in a strong momentum environment could open up levels closer to ₹3.94 lakh over time.
Market Performance and Inflation Data Impact
Silver March futures demonstrated strong momentum, rising over ₹11,000 or 4% to reach ₹2.86 lakh. This sharp movement followed the release of U.S. core CPI data, which showed inflation rising 0.2% - slightly below the expected 0.3% - while maintaining 2.6% annually.
| Economic Indicator: | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Core CPI (Monthly): | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| U.S. Core CPI (Annual): | 2.6% | - |
| Silver March Futures Gain: | 4% | - |
The favorable inflation reading boosted the case for easing monetary policy, providing support to both gold and silver. U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the inflation numbers and urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to enact a "meaningful" rate cut.
Supply Constraints Support Price Rally
Silver's rally receives additional support from tightening supply conditions. Global mine output remains constrained because silver is predominantly mined as a by-product of gold, copper, lead, and zinc production. This structural feature limits the industry's ability to rapidly increase supply, even during periods of sharp price increases.
Key supply dynamics include:
- Mexico, China, and Peru dominate global silver production
- Output growth has remained muted despite price strength
- Global supply increased by less than 1% in 2024
- Projected growth under 2% in 2025
Commodity Supercycle and Risk Factors
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, emphasized that "as long as silver holds above the breakout zone, the risk reward continues to favour the upside." The brokerage noted that the entire commodity basket is experiencing a supercycle, not just precious metals.
However, potential risks remain that could impact silver's trajectory:
- A stronger dollar could pressure precious metals
- Global economic slowdown might reduce industrial demand
- Industrial consumption accounts for nearly half of silver usage
The breakout from consolidation validates SAMCO's earlier thesis and sets the stage for the next phase of the precious metals upcycle, according to the brokerage's analysis.















































