US gasoline prices reached a record high of $4.14/gallon heading into the Labor Day weekend, surpassing the previous peak set in 2012. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) criticized President Donald Trump for the economic impact of the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Khanna stated on X that the average price at the pump was $4.14, compared to the last Labor Day weekend record high of $3.82. He asked, "Is this what winning looks like?" and called for an end to the war so the economy can recover.

Record Gasoline Prices

Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) confirms the surge. The national average gas price breached the previous 2012 record of $3.82/gallon.

Prices typically decline in late summer as producers switch to winter blends. However, despite the Trump administration authorizing an earlier shift to winter blend gasoline, pump prices remain elevated due to supply-side pressures from the Iran conflict.

Political and Market Reactions

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) also blamed the Iran war for higher fuel costs, citing a $4.15-per-gallon national average over the weekend. He stated the war was "wreaking havoc on the economy" and called for it to end immediately.

Obsidian Risk Advisors Managing Principal Brett Erickson noted that Trump has lost influence over oil markets as tensions push oil toward $100/barrel. Erickson highlighted that diesel prices are reaching all-time highs while gasoline hits Labor Day records.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright previously stated that gasoline prices were "more likely to go down than go up," citing futures prices more than 30 cents per gallon below current levels. However, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that even if prices fall below $4/gallon, they may still be the most expensive ever for that time of year.

Market Outlook

Trump asserted that oil prices will drop precipitously once the US wins the war, projecting $2/gallon gasoline. At press time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for October 2026 traded at $92.95. Brent crude futures for November 2026 rose 0.52% to $97.58.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between policy action and market reality is evident. While the administration authorized early winter blend shifts to lower costs, AAA data shows prices breached the previous 2012 record of $3.82/gallon, reaching $4.14/gallon. This suggests supply-side pressures from the Iran conflict are overriding domestic regulatory adjustments.

President Donald Trump predicted on Monday that oil prices would fall "precipitously" once the United States wins its war with Iran, forecasting gasoline costs could eventually dip below $2 per gallon.

The assertion comes as US fuel prices hit their highest Labor Day level on record, creating a stark contrast between political projections and current market realities.

Record Highs vs Political Forecasts

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average for gasoline reached $4.15 a gallon on Monday. This figure represents a significant increase from roughly $3.20 a year earlier and surpasses the previous Labor Day high of $3.82 set in 2012.

Diesel prices also surged, hitting a record $5.9015.

Trump stated on Truth Social that oil prices would drop "like everything else is dropping (but more!)" upon winning the war. He added, "Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon."

Official Responses and Market Skepticism

Energy Secretary Chris Wright declined to guarantee falling prices when pressed by CNN on Sunday. He noted only that gasoline futures suggest prices are "more likely to go down than go up."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a more specific prediction, suggesting oil could sink to $40 to $50 a barrel after the war ends due to a coming supply surge. Investor Peter Schiff dismissed these claims, stating, "don’t believe anything this guy says. I don’t think he believes what he is saying either."

Geopolitical Tensions Persist

The conflict shows no immediate signs of resolution. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on X that American oil and gas companies operating in the region remain exposed to retaliation. He wrote, "Strike our assets and you get struck," citing the sprawling nature of the production chain.

Domestic political opposition also intensified. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called the war "illegal and disastrous," blaming it for record-high gas prices. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) argued that ending the war would lower costs.

Current Market Prices

At the time of writing, Brent Crude traded near $97.05, up 0.05% a barrel. WTI Crude rose 1.06% to $92.45 per barrel. Markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.

ETF Performance

Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate the Brent Oil Fund has a Momentum score in the 92nd percentile.