Gold prices are showing strong bullish momentum across both international and domestic markets, with spot gold targeting the significant $5,000 level while MCX gold demonstrates robust technical strength. The precious metal's rally is being supported by a combination of favorable macroeconomic conditions including a weakening US dollar, declining Treasury yields, and expectations of further monetary policy easing.

MCX Gold Technical Analysis

MCX gold has exhibited strong price action with significant technical developments. According to Abhishek M Pelu, Research Analyst at Way2Wealth Brokers, the domestic gold market witnessed robust buying interest near key technical levels.

The technical analysis reveals that prices declined initially but found strong support near the 10-day exponential moving average, triggering a sharp recovery that closed with a bullish candlestick pattern. ICICI Securities analysts project MCX Gold February contracts to rise towards ₹158,500-₹159,000 levels, provided prices maintain above the ₹153,000 support level.

International Gold Market Outlook

Spot gold is positioned to trade with a positive bias, targeting the $5,000 level driven by multiple supportive factors. ICICI Securities research indicates that the weakening dollar and softening US Treasury yields are primary catalysts for the upward movement.

The market sentiment is being further bolstered by expectations of two additional rate cuts during the year, which typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Central Bank Activity and Global Developments

Central bank purchasing activity continues to provide fundamental support for gold prices. The National Bank of Poland has approved a significant acquisition plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, which would increase the country's total holdings to 700 tons. This institutional demand reflects the ongoing trend of central banks diversifying their reserves amid global economic uncertainties.

Geopolitical factors are also contributing to the precious metals rally, with European lawmakers halting approval of the EU-US trade agreement reached in July, creating additional market uncertainty. Concerns regarding Federal Reserve independence and fiscal policy uncertainties are providing additional support for safe-haven demand.

Market Expectations and Key Events

Nirmal Bang Securities analysts note that gold and silver prices are trading higher on international exchanges, with gold reaching all-time highs near $5,000 per ounce. The analysts expect precious metals prices on Indian exchanges to trade in a range-bound to higher pattern.

Upcoming market events include the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting and significant US economic data releases, which are expected to influence gold price volatility while maintaining the overall upward bias. The combination of technical strength, supportive macroeconomic conditions, and institutional demand suggests continued positive momentum for both spot and MCX gold prices.

Gold and silver rates opened with significant upside gaps during Friday morning trading, extending the previous evening's rally. Gold reached a new peak of $4,969.69 per ounce in international markets, while silver touched an intraday high of $98.98 per ounce, registering approximately 2.50% gains.

Global Price Targets Signal Continued Bullishness

Major global brokerages have set ambitious targets for gold prices, reflecting widespread optimism about the precious metal's prospects:

Notably, targets set by these global brokerages for gold prices in 2026 have already been achieved within the first three weeks of the year. Robert Kiyosaki, author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad', has predicted silver prices may reach $200 per ounce in 2026, advising investors to seek bottom-fishing opportunities during significant dips.

ETFs Emerge as Viable Alternative for Retail Investors

With physical gold and silver prices reaching record levels, investment experts suggest ETFs as attractive alternatives for retail investors. Jitendra Solanki, a SEBI-registered investment expert, highlighted the advantages: "ETFs allow even a small investor to start with a few hundred in one's pocket. So, a marginal investor can invest in gold and silver through the ETFs, which seems difficult for them in the retail physical market."

Key benefits of gold and silver ETFs include:

• High liquidity and ease of trading
• No depreciation concerns
• Absence of making charges during sales
• Lower entry barriers for small investors

Risk Considerations and Investment Strategies

Pankaj Mathpal, MD & CEO at Optima Money Managers, offered a cautious perspective on current market conditions: "Amid skyrocketing gold and silver prices, gold and silver rates today are oscillating around record highs. It would be highly risky to invest in gold and silver ETFs as they are already at a very high premium."

For risk management, Mathpal recommended different approaches based on investor risk appetite:

Recommended Investment Options

Experts have identified specific ETFs and mutual funds for investors considering precious metals exposure:

Gold ETFs:

• Nippon India ETF Gold BeES
• ICICI Prudential Gold ETF
• HDFC Gold ETF

Silver ETFs:

• ABSL Silver ETF
• ICICI Silver ETF
• Kotak Silver ETF

Mutual Funds:

• ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund (FOF)
• HDFC Gold ETF FoF
• ICICI Prudential Silver ETF FOF
• Nippon India Silver ETF FOF
• Motilal Oswal Gold and Silver Passive FoF

The current rally in precious metals presents both opportunities and challenges for retail investors, with ETFs and mutual funds offering more accessible entry points compared to physical investments at these elevated price levels.