Gold prices rose 1.2% to trade at $4,085.80, driven by a decline in US manufacturing activity. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 53.9 in June, down from a preliminary reading of 55.7 and May’s final reading of 55.1. This economic data signaled a potential slowdown, boosting the metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Market Movement

The following table summarizes the key price data reported for commodities:

The gain of 1.2% marks a notable increase from the previous session, bringing the spot price to $4,085.80. Price movements in gold are closely tracked by market participants given the metal's significance as a store of value and a key component of global commodity markets.

Broader Commodities Market

In other commodity trading, oil traded down 0.6% to $69.11. Silver traded up 1.3% to $60.685, while copper fell 0.8% to $6.2060. The mixed performance across commodities reflects varying investor sentiments toward different asset classes amidst changing economic indicators.

Economic Context

The decline in the US manufacturing PMI was a significant factor influencing market sentiment. Additionally, US private businesses added 98,000 jobs in June, a decrease from the 122,000 jobs added in May and below market estimates of 113,000. The volume of mortgage applications remained unchanged from the previous week during the last week of June.

Central banks are increasingly turning to gold as protection against financial crises, inflation, and geopolitical risks, according to a World Gold Council survey highlighted Tuesday by market commentator The Kobeissi Letter. The survey of 69 central banks found that 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during periods of crisis as a primary reason for holding the precious metal. This trend was even stronger among emerging market and developing economy central banks, where 92% identified crisis performance as a primary driver, compared with 81% of advanced economy central banks.

Crisis Protection Drives Gold Demand

Beyond crisis protection, 84% of respondents cited gold's role as a long-term store of value and hedge against inflation. The survey also found that 85% of emerging market central banks viewed gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, compared with 56% of advanced economy central banks. Central banks have remained among the largest buyers of gold in recent years, helping support prices as countries diversify reserves amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Accumulation Trends and Forecasts

A separate World Gold Council survey published on June 16 found that central banks bought an average of 1,000 metric tons of gold annually over the past four years, double the previous decade's pace. Additionally, 89% of central banks expect global reserves to rise over the next 12 months. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that renewed, consistent central bank buying is the primary factor needed to reverse gold's recent weakness. He noted that lower oil prices could support this trend by easing pressure on many countries' foreign exchange reserves, potentially allowing central banks to resume accumulating gold.

Market Context and Price Action

Spot gold prices were trading around $3,973 an ounce at publication time, hovering near an eight-month low as higher interest-rate expectations weighed on the metal. The decline represents a notable shift from the record highs of approximately $5,600 per ounce reached in January 2026. The metal had previously rallied on geopolitical tensions, strong central bank demand, and expectations for lower interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates has recently outweighed support from easing geopolitical tensions.

Divergent Bank Forecasts

Major financial institutions hold differing views on gold's trajectory for the remainder of the year. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end 2026 gold price target to $4,900 an ounce from $5,400, citing a more hawkish Federal Reserve and weaker-than-expected demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Conversely, UBS continues to forecast gold at $6,200 by year-end, while JPMorgan maintains a more bullish target of about $6,300.

ETF Performance

The most popular ETF benchmark, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), has fallen for four consecutive months since the record high in January 2026. GLD has declined 7.24% so far this year. On Tuesday, GLD closed 0.05% lower at $368.38 and fell further by 0.24% in after-hours trading. CMC Markets analyst Daniel Kostecki noted that higher real Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making Federal Reserve policy a bigger influence on prices than geopolitical developments in the near term.