Tesla Inc. operates a significantly smaller robotaxi fleet than Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo in Texas, a disparity JPMorgan attributes to a deliberate strategy prioritizing software readiness over rapid expansion. The firm’s analysis suggests that while Waymo has aggressively deployed vehicles, Tesla is focusing on refining its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology before scaling unsupervised operations. This approach highlights a divergence in the race for autonomous dominance, where software maturity is currently valued higher than fleet volume.

JPMorgan data indicates Waymo has 640 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas, comprising approximately 594 Jaguar I-PACEs and 46 sixth-generation Ojai robotaxis. In contrast, Tesla has just 84 vehicles registered in the state following its expansion beyond Austin into Dallas and Houston this year. Despite the numerical gap, analysts argue Tesla’s cautious rollout is intentional, driven by management’s belief that “many known improvements” are required in the FSD software before large-scale deployment.

Performance Metrics and Safety

The focus on software development appears to be yielding results in technical performance. JPMorgan highlighted that FSD version 14.x has achieved over 2,000 miles to critical disengagement, a 4.3-fold improvement compared to the approximately 460 miles recorded by version 13.x. Additionally, safety statistics for vehicles operating with FSD (Supervised) in North America show an average of 5.5 million miles before a major collision, which is more than eight times the U.S. average, and about 1.6 million miles before a minor collision, roughly seven times the national average.

Future Outlook

While Waymo currently leads in deployment, JPMorgan believes Tesla’s strategy positions it for a larger rollout once software matures. The Cybercab has entered pilot production, with volume production expected later this year, potentially enabling faster fleet expansion. The firm concludes that Tesla’s current fleet size reflects a calculated product strategy rather than an inability to compete, with the long-term goal hinging on the successful maturation of its autonomous driving software.

Tesla Inc shares rallied 7.95% to $409.91 on Monday, fueled by the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 Lite to AI3 early-access customers and the closure of a U.S. safety probe. The stock's surge reflects optimism around software progress and the removal of regulatory overhangs, though technical indicators suggest the recovery is still in an early phase.

FSD v14 Lite Rollout and Analyst Commentary

Tesla's FSD v14 Lite rollout is reaching AI3 early-access customers, with positive feedback noted online. The company expects the update to expand to more users in the coming weeks. Release notes highlight improvements in navigation handling, lane centering, cut-ins, parking, and reversing, reinforcing the robotaxi narrative. JPMorgan added to the bullish sentiment, arguing Tesla is deliberate rather than lagging on robotaxis and emphasizing continued gains in FSD performance ahead of delivery numbers later this week.

Safety Probe Closure

U.S. safety regulators closed their investigation into power steering loss in approximately 376,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year. The probe ended after Tesla's recall and over-the-air fix, removing a potential headline risk. While regulatory cleanup alone may not drive significant moves, it supports sentiment amid other bullish catalysts.

Technical Levels and Momentum

Tesla has reclaimed key short-term trend markers, including the 20-day simple moving average at $400.21, the 50-day at $405.17, and the 100-day at $397.80. However, the stock remains 2.2% below the 200-day simple moving average at $418.27, signaling a recovery phase within a broader repair process. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.94, indicating neutral momentum as the stock rebuilds direction after volatility.

A "death cross" pattern from April, when the 50-day moving average slipped below the 200-day, continues to pose a longer-term technical obstacle. The stock has been trading in a wide consolidation zone between its April swing low and May swing high.