Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC stated on Wednesday that Tesla Inc. continues to trail the Nasdaq 100 despite falling bond yields and lower oil prices, which typically benefit high-growth stocks. Black highlighted that Tesla underperformed the index across one, three, and five years, attributing the divergence to company-specific factors including unmet expectations for Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and weak marketing. The comments come as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.39% and Brent crude fell to $73 a barrel, conditions that usually support long-duration assets.

Performance vs. Nasdaq 100

Black used charts on X to illustrate Tesla's relative underperformance compared to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). The data shows Tesla has consistently lagged behind the broader index over multiple timeframes, even as macroeconomic indicators improved.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell another 10 basis points to 4.39% on Wednesday, while Brent crude reached its lowest level since late February at $73 a barrel. Lower yields reduce the discount rate used to value future profits, theoretically boosting growth stocks, while cheaper oil can ease inflation pressures.

FSD Hype and Marketing Challenges

Despite these tailwinds, Black argued that Tesla's stock has not lived up to the hype surrounding unsupervised Full Self-Driving. He noted that Tesla currently operates only a small number of robotaxis without safety drivers, while Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo continues to expand its autonomous ride-hailing operations. Black has previously characterized Tesla’s FSD as a "great product" that suffers from weak promotion, citing a "total lack of awareness with no advertising." He urged the company to adopt the marketing strategies of Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Jobs.

Capital Rotation and Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has also been influenced by SpaceX’s massive initial public offering. SpaceX raised $75 billion in an oversubscribed listing. Black suggested that investors are rotating out of Tesla, often viewed as the closest public proxy for exposure to Elon Musk, to fund new positions in SpaceX. According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, Tesla stock offers satisfactory Quality and Growth but does not offer a favorable price trend in the short, medium, or long term.

Tesla shares slid 1.61% to $375.46 at market close on Wednesday, before rising 0.62% to $377.80 during the overnight trading session.

Morgan Stanley has doubled its humanoid robot shipment forecast for China, now projecting 50,000 units will ship this year. The revised estimate is nearly double the bank's earlier projection of 28,000 and more than triple the 14,000 forecast made in January. This bullish outlook arrives as Wall Street increases its focus on the robotics sector, even as prediction market traders express skepticism about Tesla's immediate ability to deliver a consumer product.

The bank anticipates the humanoid robot market will reach $15 billion by 2030, with annual shipments climbing toward 446,000 units. This growth is largely attributed to the availability of cost-effective Chinese hardware already deployed on factory floors. Unitree's G1 robot, priced at roughly $16,000, undercuts Elon Musk's theoretical $20,000 target for the Tesla Optimus. Morgan Stanley has identified the G1 as likely the most widely used humanoid robot globally, with deployments at automakers including BYD, Geely and NIO.

Market Sentiment on Tesla Optimus

Traders on Polymarket assign only a 14% probability to Tesla releasing a consumer version of its Optimus robot this year. The skepticism is grounded in high production costs, with each Optimus reportedly requiring between $50,000 and $100,000 to build. This figure far exceeds Tesla's stated consumer target of $20,000 to $30,000. Currently, the units Tesla has manufactured remain inside its facilities, gathering data to train artificial intelligence rather than performing commercial tasks. The absence of a consumer infrastructure—including home software, service networks, and safety certifications—could delay a launch by a year or more.

Sector Risks and Opportunities

Morgan Stanley's China analyst has warned of a potential market shakeout, suggesting production volumes may be running ahead of actual sales as manufacturers build robots primarily for training purposes rather than for paying customers. A survey indicated that only 23% of companies are satisfied with the currently available robots. Consequently, the bank suggests that the most reliable investment strategy may involve component manufacturers, specifically highlighting harmonic reducers, ballscrews, and torque motors as essential parts required by any humanoid robot.

Competitive Landscape

While Elon Musk has described Optimus as potentially Tesla's most valuable product ever, the company faces competition from rivals with operational deployments. Figure AI's humanoids are currently working on the BMW production line in Spartanburg, and Agility Robotics' robots are handling logistics in Amazon warehouses. The disparity between Tesla's promises and its actual shipments appears to be the primary factor driving the bearish sentiment among prediction market traders.