PL Capital Identifies Investment Opportunities in Cement, Banking Sectors Amid Market Corrections
PL Capital's Amnish Aggarwal identifies investment opportunities in cement stocks following 20-25% corrections, with strong Q3 volume growth and continued January momentum, though pricing discipline remains crucial. He views banking stocks, including HDFC Bank, as near bottom with favorable risk-reward despite loan-to-deposit ratio concerns. For Restaurant Brands Asia, steady India operations contrast with loss-making Indonesia business, requiring strategic clarity. Aggarwal also highlights potential benefits from India-EU trade agreement for export sectors.

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PL Capital's Director of Institutional Research, Amnish Aggarwal, has shared his investment perspective across key sectors, identifying potential opportunities in cement and banking while highlighting mixed signals in the quick-service restaurant segment.
Cement Sector Poised for Near-Term Recovery
The cement sector presents an interesting opportunity following significant corrections, according to Aggarwal's analysis:
| Sector Performance: | Details |
|---|---|
| Recent Correction: | 20-25% from recent peaks |
| Volume Growth: | Strong return in Q3, post-Diwali |
| Demand Momentum: | Continued into January |
| Key Challenge: | Pricing discipline sustainability |
Aggarwal noted that stocks such as Dalmia Bharat have already priced in substantial negative sentiment. The sector has witnessed one round of pricing increases, with prices likely to remain firm. However, he emphasized that the historical problem with cement stocks has been the inability to maintain pricing, which has kept margins unfavorable.
"The problem with the cement stocks has been that the pricing has not been holding on, and that is why the margins have not been on the favourable side," Aggarwal explained.
He characterized cement stocks as tactical rather than long-term structural trades, suggesting they could deliver strong near-term performance if recent price hikes sustain and margins recover over the next two to three months.
Banking Sector Approaching Bottom
Regarding HDFC Bank's recent sharp reaction, Aggarwal believes the downside now appears limited:
| Banking Outlook: | Assessment |
|---|---|
| HDFC Bank Downside: | Limited at current levels |
| Valuation Status: | No longer expensive |
| Sector Position: | Close to bottoming out |
| Risk-Reward: | Favorable at current levels |
While acknowledging that the elevated loan-to-deposit ratio remains a concern and is correcting only gradually, he noted that valuations are no longer expensive. Most banking stocks, including HDFC Bank, are positioned near their bottom, with net interest margins showing signs of stabilization.
QSR Sector Challenges and Opportunities
For Restaurant Brands Asia, Aggarwal presented a nuanced view of the quick-service restaurant operator's prospects:
- India Operations: Steady and operationally sound, though profitability remains challenging
- Indonesia Operations: Continue to generate losses, representing the larger concern
- Capital Requirements: No urgent need for fund infusion currently
- Strategic Investment: Any capital raise bringing new strategic or promoter-level investors could be meaningfully positive
Aggarwal emphasized that clarity on future ownership and business strategy, particularly regarding Indonesia operations, will be critical for the stock's performance.
India-EU Trade Agreement Potential
Looking at broader economic developments, Aggarwal highlighted the potential benefits of an India-EU free trade agreement, especially amid delays in Indo-US trade negotiations:
Beneficiary Sectors:
- Textiles
- Gems and jewelry
- Other export-oriented industries
Long-term Advantages:
- Enhanced market access to European markets
- Easier access to European technologies in defense, semiconductors, and renewable energy
- Reduced pressure to enter less favorable trade agreements elsewhere
- Strengthened technology and manufacturing ecosystem
Aggarwal believes such an agreement could provide breathing space to Indian industry while offering substantial long-term gains through improved technology access and market opportunities.
Investment Strategy Summary
Aggarwal's current market outlook reflects a cautiously optimistic approach, identifying specific opportunities in corrected sectors while acknowledging ongoing challenges. His analysis suggests focusing on tactical opportunities in cement, value plays in banking, and monitoring strategic developments in the QSR space, while keeping an eye on broader trade policy developments that could benefit export-oriented sectors.
Historical Stock Returns for PH Capital
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.86% | +13.71% | +176.00% | +188.62% | +70.94% | +2,483.73% |
































