Jefferies Initiates Coverage on Pine Labs with ₹300 Target; Sees 28% Upside Potential
Jefferies has initiated coverage on Pine Labs with a 'buy' rating and ₹300 price target, citing 28.50% upside potential. The brokerage projects 23% revenue CAGR over FY25-28 and expects EBITDA margins to expand from 15% to 27%. Pine Labs holds dominant market positions with 70-75% share in closed-loop cards and 90-95% in EMI at physical stores, positioning it well to capitalize on India's expanding digital commerce ecosystem.

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Pine Labs shares gained attention following Jefferies' initiation of coverage with the company's first 'buy' rating since its stock market listing. The brokerage firm set a price target of ₹300.00 per share, indicating a 28.50% upside potential from Tuesday's closing price.
Jefferies' Growth Projections and Financial Outlook
Jefferies initiated coverage citing Pine Labs' positioning at an earnings inflection point, projecting significant growth across multiple business segments. The brokerage expects the company to benefit from operating leverage, improved profitability, and expansion in digital payment segments over the next three years.
| Financial Projections | FY25 | FY28 | CAGR/Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth: | - | - | 23.00% CAGR |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin: | 15.00% | 27.00% | 12pp expansion |
| Net Position: | ₹1.50 bn loss | ₹7.00 bn profit | Turnaround |
| Contribution Margins: | 76-78% | 76-78% | Steady |
Jefferies projects Pine Labs could swing from a net loss of ₹1.50 billion in FY25 to a net profit of ₹7.00 billion by FY28, assuming current growth and efficiency trends sustain.
Market Leadership and Competitive Positioning
Pine Labs has established dominant market positions across multiple digital payment verticals. The company's diversified business model spans physical store payments, prepaid card services, and expanding online payment solutions.
| Market Share Analysis | Position |
|---|---|
| Closed/Semi-closed Loop Cards: | 70-75% market share |
| EMI at Physical Stores: | 90-95% market share |
| DCP Network Share: | 15-17% by network |
| DCP Value Share: | 20-22% by value |
| GTV Growth Projection: | 30% CAGR (3 years) |
Jefferies highlighted Pine Labs' strong positioning across the digital payments value chain, including EMI at point-of-sale, closed and semi-closed loop cards, and Digital Checkout Points (DCPs).
Digital Commerce Ecosystem Growth
The brokerage emphasized India's expanding digital commerce ecosystem as a key growth driver. The number of merchants accepting digital payments has risen from 45 million to 63 million over the past five years, while payments to merchants increased significantly from ₹29 trillion to ₹117 trillion.
Pine Labs' expansion strategy includes growth in its DCP network, increasing digitization of commercial payments, and strong momentum in the affordability segment through EMI offerings and prepaid card solutions. The company also operates internationally across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Australia, and the US for prepaid card and gift-card issuance business.
Stock Performance and Trading Activity
| Trading Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Listing Date: | November 14 |
| Listing Price: | ₹242.00 |
| IPO Premium: | 9.50% |
| Tuesday's Close: | ₹233.50 |
| Current Trading: | ₹244.30 (+4.40%) |
Pine Labs shares were trading 4.40% higher at ₹244.30 during the trading session, reflecting positive market reception to Jefferies' coverage initiation. The stock made its debut on November 14, listing at ₹242.00 per share with a 9.50% premium over the IPO price.
Analyst Coverage and Valuation Outlook
Currently, three analysts provide coverage for Pine Labs with mixed recommendations including one 'buy' rating from Jefferies, one 'hold' rating, and one 'sell' rating. Jefferies believes Pine Labs' valuation has potential for re-rating if the company delivers consistent growth and profitability improvements over the forecast period, particularly given its current discount to industry peers.
Historical Stock Returns for Pine Labs
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.23% | +5.51% | +1.73% | -5.25% | -5.25% | -5.25% |
































