Nifty's 11.78% USD CAGR Since 1998 Outperforms Gold and S&P 500, Says Samir Arora
Samir Arora's analysis reveals Nifty 50's exceptional 1,922.38% returns (11.78% CAGR) in USD terms since December 1998, outperforming gold's 1,472.66% and S&P 500's 821.05% over 27 years. Despite 2025's underperformance with ~10% returns versus global indices delivering 14-32%, the long-term data supports sustained domestic equity allocation. NSE 500's superior 2,590.10% returns (12.96% annually) further strengthens the case for Indian market investment over extended periods.

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Helios Capital Management founder Samir Arora has presented compelling long-term performance data that positions Indian equities ahead of gold and US markets over nearly three decades. The veteran fund manager's analysis comes amid ongoing debates about India versus global investing, particularly following the domestic market's underperformance in 2025.
Outstanding Long-Term Performance Despite Recent Challenges
Arora highlighted that the Nifty 50 Total Return Index, which includes dividends, delivered remarkable returns from December 31, 1998, to present. The data reveals Indian equities' resilience and wealth-creation potential over extended periods, even after accounting for rupee depreciation.
| Asset Class | Total Returns | Annual CAGR | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 TRI (USD) | 1,922.38% | 11.78% | ~27 years |
| Gold (USD) | 1,472.66% | 10.74% | Same period |
| S&P 500 (USD) | 821.05% | 8.57% | Same period |
| NSE 500 TRI (USD) | 2,590.10% | 12.96% | Same period |
2025 Market Performance Context
The analysis gains significance against the backdrop of Indian markets' challenging 2025 performance. The Nifty generated approximately 10% returns this year, trailing major global benchmarks significantly. Asian markets demonstrated stronger performance, with several indices delivering substantial gains.
| Market Index | 2025 Returns |
|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 28% |
| Hang Seng | 32% |
| Shanghai Composite | 21% |
| Dow 30 | 14% |
| S&P 100 | 20% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22% |
| FTSE 100 | 20% |
| DAX | 22% |
Bullion emerged as 2025's best-performing asset class, with gold delivering around 80% returns and silver achieving multibagger status.
Comparative Analysis and Benchmark Selection
Arora emphasized the importance of appropriate benchmark comparisons when evaluating market performance. He argued that comparing Indian markets to the S&P 500 requires using the NSE 500 index, which better represents broader market participation. The NSE 500's superior 12.96% annual returns in USD terms over 27 years strengthen this perspective.
The fund manager's analysis accounts for the Indian rupee's long-term depreciation, ensuring fair comparison with dollar-denominated assets. This methodology provides investors with realistic expectations about currency-adjusted returns from Indian equity investments.
Investment Implications
The data reinforces the case for sustained domestic equity allocation among long-term investors. Despite periodic underperformance like 2025, Indian equities have consistently outperformed traditional safe-haven assets like gold and developed market benchmarks over extended horizons. The analysis suggests that temporary market fluctuations should not overshadow the structural growth potential of Indian markets for patient investors focused on wealth creation over decades.

























