JPMorgan Initiates Overweight Coverage on Polycab and KEI Industries with Strong Upside Targets
JPMorgan initiated overweight coverage on Polycab India (target ₹8,900, 17% upside) and KEI Industries (target ₹5,250, 20% upside), citing strong cable sector fundamentals. India's cables and wires industry reached ₹90,000 crore in FY25, growing at 13% during FY23-FY25, with projections of 13-14% CAGR through FY30. The sector benefits from structural demand drivers and India's emergence as net exporter with 19% export CAGR. While both companies are well-positioned with JPMorgan's FY27 EPS estimates 8-12% above consensus, rising competition from large conglomerates entering the organized wires segment poses margin pressure risks.

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JPMorgan has initiated overweight coverage on two prominent cable and wire manufacturers, citing strong sector fundamentals and earnings upside potential. The global brokerage's positive stance comes amid robust industry growth and structural demand drivers supporting the cables and wires sector.
Industry Growth Momentum
India's cables and wires industry has demonstrated impressive growth trajectory, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.00% over the past five years. The sector reached an estimated market size of ₹90,000 crore in FY25, with growth momentum accelerating further to nearly 13.00% during FY23-FY25.
| Growth Metrics: | Details |
|---|---|
| 5-Year CAGR: | ~11% |
| FY25 Market Size: | ₹90,000 crore |
| FY23-FY25 Growth: | ~13% |
| Projected FY25-FY30 CAGR: | 13-14% |
| Expected FY30 Market Size: | ₹1.90 trillion |
The growth has been supported by rising demand from multiple sectors including real estate, renewable energy, infrastructure development, and industrial capex. According to projections, the industry is expected to expand at 1.50-2.00 times India's real GDP growth over the near to medium term, reflecting strong structural demand drivers.
Export Performance and Market Dynamics
India has emerged as a net exporter of cables and wires since FY20, with exports demonstrating remarkable growth. Export revenues climbed from ₹8,300 crore in FY20 to ₹19,800 crore in FY25, translating into a robust 19.00% CAGR.
The sector benefits from specific demand patterns, with cables typically accounting for 5-10% of total project capex. Notably, every 1 MW of new data centre capacity can generate approximately ₹3.50 crore of incremental cable demand, pointing to substantial growth opportunities for premium and institutional-grade cabling manufacturers.
Polycab India Coverage Initiation
Polycab India, with a market capitalization of ₹1.13 lakh crore, received an overweight rating from JPMorgan with a target price of ₹8,900 per share. This implies potential upside of approximately 17.00% from previous closing levels. The stock hit an intraday low of ₹7,526 on BSE, declining around 1.30% during Tuesday's trading session.
| Polycab Coverage Details: | Specifications |
|---|---|
| Rating: | Overweight |
| Target Price: | ₹8,900 |
| Upside Potential: | ~17% |
| Market Cap: | ₹1.13 lakh crore |
| Intraday Low: | ₹7,526 |
JPMorgan expects Polycab to outperform peers in the near term, though the brokerage cautioned that the company's margin superiority may face pressure as competitive intensity increases. The report noted that Polycab's EBIT margins, approximately 450 basis points higher than the top five peers, could gradually normalize due to new entrants targeting the organized wires segment.
KEI Industries Coverage Analysis
KEI Industries, with a market capitalization of ₹41,198 crore, also received an overweight rating with a target price of ₹5,250 per share, implying potential upside of more than 20.00% from previous close. The stock reached an intraday low of ₹4,282.25 on BSE, declining approximately 2.00% during Tuesday's session.
| KEI Industries Coverage: | Details |
|---|---|
| Rating: | Overweight |
| Target Price: | ₹5,250 |
| Upside Potential: | >20% |
| Market Cap: | ₹41,198 crore |
| Cable Revenue Contribution: | 65-70% |
According to JPMorgan, KEI Industries is better positioned than most peers due to its higher exposure to cables, which contribute around 65-70% of revenues. The brokerage highlighted KEI's cleaner play on cables and wires, stronger export footprint, and higher exposure to Extra High Voltage products.
Competitive Landscape and Risk Factors
The sector faces potential challenges from new entrants, particularly large conglomerates entering the wires segment. The Adani Group announced its entry through Kutch Copper Limited's joint venture, Praneetha Ecocables Ltd., with 50.00% stake. Additionally, UltraTech Cement revealed plans to enter the segment with ₹1,800 crore capex spread over two years.
JPMorgan's FY27 EPS estimates for both Polycab and KEI Industries are 8-12% higher than current consensus forecasts, indicating scope for positive earnings revisions. The brokerage expects near-term earnings upside supported by rising global copper prices, which tend to benefit inventory-led players. However, increased competition could pressure industry margins and return on capital employed over time, though both companies are considered relatively better positioned than peers.
Historical Stock Returns for Polycab
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.97% | -2.67% | +3.83% | +12.67% | +20.85% | +523.50% |
















































