Eternal Shares Rally 3% as Goldman Sachs Sets ₹390 Target Price, Dismisses Bear Theories
Eternal shares gained 3% to ₹292.95 after Goldman Sachs dismissed bearish sentiment and maintained its Buy rating with ₹375 target price, implying 33% upside. The endorsement came despite the stock's 17% decline over three months, driven by concerns over quick-commerce growth and competitive pressures. Goldman highlighted Blinkit's dominant 40-45% market share and expects 50%+ EBITDA growth until FY30E, while Nuvama projects strong Q3 revenue growth of 187% YoY to ₹15,492 crores.

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Eternal shares surged approximately 3% to ₹292.95 on BSE following a strong endorsement from Goldman Sachs, which dismissed the excessive bearish sentiment surrounding the stock. The rally came after the global brokerage maintained its Buy rating and set a revised 12-month target price of ₹375, implying 33% upside potential from current levels. This positive outlook provided much-needed support to the stock, which had declined 17% over the past three months.
Goldman Sachs Maintains Bullish Stance
Goldman Sachs expressed disagreement with the extent of bearishness being priced into Eternal's stock, citing concerns over near-term quick-commerce growth slowdown and competitive pressures on Blinkit's margins as key factors behind the recent correction. The brokerage emphasized that Blinkit's implied EV/EBITDA on normalized margins for FY30E at 14x remains at the lower end of India's internet peer group, despite demonstrating a significantly superior growth profile.
| Financial Projections: | Details |
|---|---|
| Target Price: | ₹375 (revised from ₹390) |
| Upside Potential: | 33% from current levels |
| Expected EBITDA Growth: | 50%+ YoY until FY30E |
| Bull Case Upside: | 73% |
| Bear Case Downside: | 22% |
Blinkit's Market Dominance
Goldman Sachs highlighted Blinkit's strong competitive position in India's quick-commerce industry, estimating the platform currently holds 40-45% market share by net order value (NOV). The brokerage expects this market share to remain broadly stable through FY30E, despite intensifying competition from multiple players including Swiggy, Zepto, Jiomart, BigBasket, Amazon, and Flipkart.
The analysis suggests a multi-player market structure with Blinkit maintaining its leadership position alongside a couple of players holding 15-20% market share each, and additional sub-scale competitors. Notably, Goldman expects Blinkit to capture more than 100% share of the quick-commerce industry profit pool (EBITDA) starting FY27E for at least the following 2-3 years.
Q3 Performance Expectations
Nuvama Institutional Equities positioned Eternal among the leaders in revenue growth for Q3 within its internet coverage universe. The brokerage projects strong momentum across its internet coverage for Q3FY26E, with specific financial projections showing mixed results.
| Q3 FY26E Projections: | Amount | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue: | ₹15,492 crores | +187% YoY, +14% QoQ |
| Adjusted PAT: | ₹9.30 crores | -84% YoY, -86% QoQ |
While revenue growth appears robust with 187% year-on-year increase and 14% sequential growth, the adjusted PAT is expected to face significant pressure with an 84% year-on-year decline and 86% sequential drop.
Market Outlook
The endorsement from Goldman Sachs comes at a crucial time for Eternal, as investors had grown increasingly concerned about competitive dynamics in the quick-commerce space and their potential impact on profitability. The brokerage's analysis suggests that current market concerns may be overblown, particularly given Blinkit's strong market position and growth trajectory. Goldman's conservative growth estimates compared to management guidance provide additional confidence in their projections, with significant upside potential in bullish scenarios.































