Investors are divided over SpaceX's valuation ahead of its highly anticipated IPO, with prominent venture capitalists arguing that the company's current price may appear expensive in the short term but represents a significant long-term opportunity. Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies Inc. and managing partner at 8VC, suggested that while the valuation looks high now, it could appear "really cheap" in 5 to 10 years. Similarly, investor Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, compared SpaceX's potential impact to a historic shift in global trade, asserting that the largest opportunities are still ahead.

Lonsdale positioned SpaceX as "a critical company in the middle of the biggest industrial revolution we’ve ever had," encouraging investors to view the company through the lens of artificial intelligence infrastructure. He highlighted that approximately $5 trillion is expected to be invested in AI infrastructure over the next five years, a spending wave he believes aligns with Elon Musk's strengths. Lonsdale expressed strong confidence in Musk's execution, stating, "It's crazy to think he's not going to win," and noted that Musk "doesn't miss his goals." He emphasized that investors focused on near-term valuation metrics may be missing a generational infrastructure story.

AI Infrastructure Investment

Lonsdale's thesis relies heavily on the projected influx of capital into the AI sector, which he believes will directly benefit SpaceX.

Historic Cost Reductions

Palihapitiya supported the bullish case by focusing on SpaceX's operational achievements, specifically the dramatic reduction in the cost of reaching space. He argued that SpaceX has opened the lowest-cost route into space, unlocking opportunities that were previously impossible. To illustrate the magnitude of this shift, Palihapitiya drew an analogy to 1497, when explorer Vasco da Gama discovered a sea route that bypassed expensive land trade routes, collapsing the cost structure of global trade and creating entities like the Dutch East India Company.

"SpaceX is changing the economics of reaching space the way Vasco da Gama changed the economics of reaching Asia," Palihapitiya said. He noted that in 2025, SpaceX launched 85% of all satellites, more than every other space program on Earth combined, by making rockets reusable and increasing launch cadence.

According to Palihapitiya, SpaceX has reduced the cost of reaching low Earth orbit to $2,720 per kilogram, down from $54,500 years earlier—a 20× reduction.

Future Opportunities

Palihapitiya identified three major opportunities unlocked by cheaper access to space: connectivity, compute, and critical minerals. He suggested that "data centers in orbit" could create entirely new markets, while "space-based critical minerals" could help the United States reduce dependence on resources controlled by China. He stated that SpaceX now sits on the main commercial route to orbit, with Starlink serving as the first proof of what that route can unlock, potentially leading to the next frontier: orbital compute.

Inspire Investing announced on June 12, 2026, that SpaceX will receive a negative Inspire Impact Score upon its initial public offering, disqualifying it from inclusion in any Inspire ETF. The determination follows an assessment by Inspire's research team under its biblically responsible investing (BRI) methodology, which found that SpaceX's ownership of X triggers violations in the Exploitation and Sexually Explicit screening categories. This exclusion means the world's largest Christian exchange-traded fund (ETF) provider will not hold SpaceX shares in any of its funds.

The National Center on Sexual Exploitation (NCOSE) identified X for failing to adequately address child sexual abuse material on its platform. According to the organization, X has declined to take action in certain cases and continues to facilitate the spread of child sexual abuse content, image-based sexual abuse, AI-generated deepfake pornography, prostitution, and sex trafficking. Although X operates as a separate company, its profits and business activities are connected to SpaceX through shared ownership.

Ownership and Responsibility

Inspire Investing's methodology treats a parent company's ownership of a subsidiary that facilitates documented exploitation as a disqualifying factor. The firm states that ownership carries responsibility and involves the intermingling of profits. Robert Netzly, CEO of Inspire Investing, emphasized that while SpaceX is impressive by financial measures, the company does not meet the standard for investors seeking to own shares with a clear conscience.

"SpaceX owns X (formerly Twitter). X has been documented facilitating some of the worst exploitation of human dignity available on the internet," said Netzly. "Our job at Inspire is to find good companies our investors can own with a clear conscience before God. SpaceX does not meet that standard."

Screening Methodology

The Inspire Impact Score is a proprietary scoring system developed to evaluate publicly traded securities for biblical alignment across more than 26 categories. A negative score in any disqualifying category results in exclusion from Inspire ETFs. The score is calculated using sourced third-party research, including findings from organizations such as NCOSE, and is updated quarterly with provisions for off-cycle updates for high-profile events.

Inspire clarified that the decision to exclude SpaceX is a values-based determination rather than a financial assessment. The firm maintains that its ETFs are designed to demonstrate that faith-based investing and competitive long-term performance are not mutually exclusive. SpaceX's score will be available on the free screening tool Inspire Insight beginning with its IPO listing.