Crypto perpetual futures tied to SpaceX imply a 22% premium to the company's IPO price, suggesting a valuation near 2.2 trillion, while prediction markets assign significantly lower odds to that outcome. Perpetual futures traded around 165 on crypto venues Hyperliquid and Binance Thursday morning, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX is offering shares at a fixed $135, or about 1.8 trillion, which puts the perps at a 22% premium to the deal.

These contracts do not convert into stock at the opening bell. They instead rebase into standard real-world asset perpetuals that track the live Nasdaq price, settling in cash rather than shares. A similar perp appeared to predict the debut of Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS), which soared 68% on its first day in May.

Market Divergence

Polymarket's market on SpaceX's closing market cap tells a more cautious story. Traders price an 84% chance the stock finishes its first day above the 1.8 trillion IPO valuation. However, the odds of closing above 2.2 trillion, the level the perps imply, sit at 42%.

The table below details the probability distribution for various closing valuations on Polymarket:

Tradeable Angles

Retail investors cannot buy the perps or the contracts directly, but the listing flows through public names. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) is where much of the retail crowd will likely chase SPCX on day one. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is the primary US on-ramp for USDC, the stablecoin that funds and settles these perp contracts on venues like Hyperliquid.

The deal is reportedly more than four times oversubscribed, which may explain why both betting venues lean bullish even as veteran skeptics question the price.

The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is set to generate substantial wealth for early investors, including several high-profile figures from the entertainment industry. The offering, which will list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, provides a liquidity event for stakeholders who backed the space company early in its development. The financial windfall comes as the market values the company led by Elon Musk, potentially creating new billionaires among its investor base.

Rapper 2 Chainz is one of the notable individual investors who confirmed an early stake in SpaceX. In a March 2026 interview, the artist explained that private equity contacts provided the opportunity to invest. 2 Chainz described the move as a gamble aimed at achieving significant financial multiples, noting that he entered the position very early. Beyond SpaceX, the rapper also holds an investment in AI company Anthropic.

Television producer Mark Burnett, known for creating "The Apprentice" and "Survivor," is another early investor positioned to benefit from the public offering. According to a report from PageSix, Burnett invested in SpaceX prior to the IPO. The listing is scheduled for Friday, marking a pivotal moment for these early backers.

Other Hollywood Stakeholders

Several other Hollywood executives and power players have secured stakes in SpaceX, positioning themselves for significant gains. The following table outlines the key figures mentioned in connection with the investment:

Reports indicate that K5 Global holds a stake that could be worth billions of dollars based on the latest valuation of SpaceX. Meanwhile, Bryan Lourd is reported to hold a smaller stake compared to the other named investors. WME Group and CAA are recognized as two of the largest talent agencies globally.

The IPO stands to create new millionaires and billionaires among SpaceX employees and early investors. While some figures like Burnett and 2 Chainz are already wealthy, the public offering offers a mechanism to further amplify their net worths. The event underscores the broad appeal of SpaceX's growth trajectory across diverse sectors, from music and television to private equity.