Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NYSE: FLY) stock is surging on Thursday, gaining roughly 6.5% as intense sector-wide enthusiasm sweeps through the space exploration market. The rally comes ahead of the highly anticipated market debut of SpaceX under the ticker symbol SPCX. Wall Street is preparing for the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to position the company as an industry leader with a projected valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion.

The massive valuation is casting a bright halo effect over smaller peers like Firefly Aerospace, as traders hunt for high-growth sympathy plays in the expanding space economy. The upcoming offering is drawing liquidity away from other risk assets. Solana Foundation President Lily Liu noted that capital is actively rotating out of digital assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to chase these fresh equity opportunities.

"When you have a high-risk, forward-looking growth asset like that, it competes for the same capital that often flows into crypto," Liu explained, adding that "the dollars are seeking more growth, risk and yield."

SpaceX IPO Triggers Sector Rally

The SpaceX offering is expected to raise approximately $75 billion, reportedly valuing the company at 80 to 90 times earnings. Crucially for individual market participants, Liu noted that roughly 30% of the IPO allocation is expected to be directed toward retail investors, amplifying the speculative buzz across trading desks on Thursday.

Critical Price Levels To Watch For FLY Stock

At $34.70, the stock is still in "repair mode" on the intermediate trend: it's trading 19.2% below its 20-day SMA ($43.24) and 10.9% below its 50-day SMA ($39.21), which tells you the recent downtrend pressure hasn't fully cleared. At the same time, it's trading 11.3% above its 100-day SMA ($31.37) and 16.2% above its 200-day SMA ($30.06), so the longer-term floor has been holding even as the shorter-term trend cooled.

The moving-average structure is mixed but not broken: the 20-day SMA is still above the 50-day SMA (a bullish crossover), and the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA (a bullish longer-term alignment). Firefly Aerospace shares were up 3.86% at $34.71 during premarket trading on Thursday.

SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq this Friday under the ticker SPCX, pricing 555.6 million Class A shares at a fixed $135 each. The raise of $75 billion would surpass Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record and land SpaceX at a roughly $1.77 trillion implied valuation. This figure exceeds the combined market capitalization of all 12 aerospace and defense companies listed on the S&P 500 index, including RTX Corp, Boeing Co., Northrop Grumman Corp, and GE Aerospace, which collectively total approximately $1.5 trillion. The company filed its public S-1 prospectus in May 2026.

Pricier Than The Magnificent Seven

For all the excitement surrounding what is expected to be the world’s largest IPO on June 12, SpaceX remains a company that has yet to turn a profit. After posting a $4.9 billion loss in 2025, investors are left valuing the company on its revenue generation rather than its earnings power. Based on the company’s revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, investors would be paying nearly $93.6 for every dollar of revenue generated by SpaceX, giving the company a higher revenue multiple than NVIDIA Corp, Broadcom Inc, and every member of the Magnificent Seven.

The valuation towers over Nvidia’s, with investors paying 4.7 times more for each dollar of revenue than they do for one of Wall Street’s most richly valued stocks. It is also more than 26 times Amazon.com Inc.’s revenue multiple and roughly 6.5 to 9.9 times that of the others in the group.

Why Investors Are Willing To Pay Up

Despite concerns about its valuation, investor appetite for the offering appears strong. Reuters reported Tuesday that SpaceX’s IPO attracted more than $250 billion in orders. The demand implies the offering was oversubscribed by roughly 3.5 times, suggesting many investors are willing to look past near-term profitability concerns in exchange for exposure to one of the world’s most closely watched private companies.

That optimism was echoed by billionaire investor Ron Baron, who earlier this week said SpaceX could ultimately become the most valuable company ever created, forecasting its valuation could grow from less than $2 trillion at IPO to as much as $30 trillion over time. Morningstar struck a similarly cautious note on Monday, saying its $780 billion fair value estimate remains roughly 55% below SpaceX’s reported IPO valuation despite incorporating ambitious assumptions about the company’s future growth prospects.

Priced For Perfection?

Stefon Walters, an analyst at The Motley Fool, argued that a great company does not always make a great investment, particularly when lofty expectations are already reflected in the valuation. According to the analyst, SpaceX’s valuation leaves little room for disappointment and increases the risk of volatility once shares begin trading publicly. While he did not rule out the possibility that SpaceX could become a successful long-term investment, Walters suggested investors may want to wait for the stock to establish a trading history before buying into the IPO.

Total Addressable Market Breakdown

SpaceX has disclosed a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion in its filing, roughly equivalent to the entire annual GDP of the U.S. The company breaks this market down into three primary verticals: Space, Connectivity, and AI.

The Space vertical, comprising core launch and space-enabled solutions, represents the smallest slice at $370 billion. Connectivity accounts for $1.6 trillion, split between $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile. Notably, these TAM figures exclude China and Russia entirely, scoping the upside against Western markets only.