SpaceX and Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk predicted that the commercial space flight giant could exceed orbital payload timelines and expectations. Musk stated that one million tons to orbit should be possible in roughly five years. This projection follows a new valuation model from research firm Mach33, which outlines significant growth potential for SpaceX's orbital capabilities.

Influencer Sawyer Merritt shared details from the Mach33 valuation model on social media platform X. The model indicates that SpaceX could put over 40,000 tons of Starlink payload into orbit in the next two years. This timeline coincides with the launch of the first datacenter satellites.

Valuation and IPO Prospects

Investor Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management touted SpaceX's upcoming IPO as an exciting event for the tech industry. Munster compared the commercial space flight company with Alphabet Inc. but noted that SpaceX holds an edge because Alphabet does not manufacture rockets.

SpaceX's upcoming IPO has generated considerable buzz. Investor Ron Baron predicted the company could eventually be worth $30 trillion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the lead underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, reportedly told prospective investors that the company's total revenue could reach over $474 billion by 2030.

Legal Challenges

A proposed class-action lawsuit has been filed against SpaceX and xAI by residents of Mississippi in a federal court. The residents complain of perpetual and inescapable noise stemming from AI datacenters. The lawsuit includes an estimated 10,000 residents of the area, though Musk is not personally named as a defendant.

SpaceX signed a $920 million monthly compute-leasing deal with Alphabet, granting access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs across its data centers through mid-2029. The agreement, finalized days before SpaceX's landmark public offering, locks in significant computing capacity for the aerospace company's AI division.

Under the terms, capacity ramps to full rate by September 2026 at a reduced fee. The contract includes an exit clause allowing Google to terminate immediately if SpaceX fails to deliver the committed GPU count by that deadline. Following 2026, either party may exit the agreement with 90 days' notice.

SpaceX's IPO prospectus reveals financial strain within its AI division, which recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion in the last quarter on revenue of $818 million. During the same period, the company reported total capital expenditures of $10.1 billion, with $7.7 billion specifically allocated to AI infrastructure.

Financial Performance and Projections

SpaceX is targeting a valuation north of $1.75 trillion for its imminent listing. Co-lead underwriter Morgan Stanley projects revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with the AI division contributing up to $190 billion by 2030. However, NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX closer to $1.3 trillion, criticizing the AI market size projections as unrealistic.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Moves

SpaceX has also entered a separate compute capacity deal with Anthropic at its Colossus 1 facility in Memphis. By entering the infrastructure leasing market, SpaceX competes directly with neocloud providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius. Shares of these competitors fell sharply during a broader tech selloff but partially recovered following the announcement.

The terrestrial compute deal coincides with reports that Google and SpaceX are in separate talks to develop orbital data centers. Google reportedly plans prototype satellite launches by 2027 under its Project Suncatcher initiative. Additionally, SpaceX has reportedly barred Hong Kong and mainland China investors from its IPO, citing U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Full exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option could add approximately $11.25 billion to the offering.