Wedbush has initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, arguing the Elon Musk-led firm is emerging as a dominant AI infrastructure play. The firm’s “sum of the parts” valuation implies an enterprise value of approximately $2.48 trillion based on FY28 estimates, driven by a powerful “demand flywheel” in its Starship launches and Colossus clusters. This bullish outlook arrives as the stock prepares for significant passive capital inflows ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7.

Dan Ives, Wedbush’s Global Head of Tech Research, emphasized that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. should be viewed as a vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI rather than a traditional space business. He identified the Starlink satellite network, backed by 12 million global subscribers, as the primary profitability driver. While acknowledging the stock looks expensive based on current revenue, Ives stated that execution over the next two to three years could redefine the company’s market position.

“If they execute, I could argue this becomes one of the best AI plays in the market,” Ives said. “That’s why we are bullish here. I think you got to see around the corner, rather than just looking at valuation over the next six to 12 months.”

Valuation Debate

The aggressive valuation has sparked skepticism on Wall Street. Evercore founder and senior chairman Roger Altman warned that traditional models struggle to value Space Exploration Technologies Corp. and IPO-bound Anthropic due to their unprecedented scale and uncertain long-term cash flows. “I don’t think anybody understands, at least I don’t, how to value companies like SpaceX or Anthropic,” Altman stated. Third Bridge sector analyst John Conca also cautioned that aggressive multi-year subscriber projections are “unrealistic” due to near-term capacity constraints.

Recent Stock Performance

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. have gained 13.91% since their listing on June 12. The stock rose 4.06% to close at $170.86 on Tuesday and was up 1.84% in premarket trading on Wednesday.

Elon Musk stated he would be disappointed if Space Exploration Technologies Corp. failed to significantly exceed bullish financial projections for the coming years, including a potential $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. The comments, posted on X on June 29, 2026, respond to aggressive growth estimates from industry analysts and underscore the high expectations placed on the rocket, satellite, and AI infrastructure company following its recent public market debut.

Musk was replying to Aaron Burnett, CEO of asset management firm Mach33, who shared a projection that SpaceX could scale to nearly $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028. Burnett cited drivers such as launch control, Starlink growth beyond 10 million subscribers, V3 satellites, direct-to-cell service, Starship reusability, and AI compute leasing. Burnett noted that his team's estimates for Starlink are among the industry's most optimistic and suggested that the AI compute side might be underestimated.

Musk Raises Bar For SpaceX Growth

"I would be disappointed if SpaceX did not significantly exceed these milestones," Musk wrote on X. This stance aligns with an even larger claim Musk made earlier in the month, suggesting SpaceX could reach roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. This figure is more than triple the estimate of roughly $330 billion from Morgan Stanley at the time. Musk also indicated he would be surprised if revenue remained below $1 trillion in 2031.

Other analyst projections vary significantly. Goldman Sachs has projected a 2030 revenue figure above $470 billion, while New Street Research estimates about $195 billion by 2030. ARK Invest's Brett Winton has suggested revenue could eventually reach $300 billion to $400 billion.

Financial Performance and Market Debut

These targets contrast sharply with SpaceX's recent financial results. The company reported $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $14.02 billion in 2024, but posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. Achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 would require growth of more than 50 times the 2025 levels.

The projections arrive as SpaceX faces pressure to justify its valuation after its initial public offering. The company completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, raising $85.7 billion. Shares opened at $150 against a $135 offering price, pushing SpaceX's valuation past $2 trillion. After surging to about $225, the stock has experienced volatility and is hovering near $153, slightly above the first trading price and about 14% above the IPO offer price.

Key Financial and Market Data

SpaceX has also announced a senior unsecured bond offering and disclosed $100.8 billion in cash as of mid-June. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 17, providing investors with the first official look at its public-market financials.