Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale upgraded AeroVironment from Market Perform to Outperform, setting a $210 price target. The upgrade follows a roughly 55% decline in the stock's value since March, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which climbed about 10% over the same period. Gesuale argues this gap has created a buying opportunity, supported by a reset in forward EBITDA estimates that have drifted roughly 15% lower over the past six months.

Rating Action

The firm elevated its rating on the defense technology firm to Outperform from Market Perform. The new price target is set at $210.

Business Outlook and Contracts

Order activity is picking up after a prolonged dry spell, and the company's backlog is positioned to grow again. Headwinds such as uncertainty around the SCAR program, pressure on production revenue, and the impact of a government shutdown are fading. The U.S. Army is in active talks with AeroVironment regarding the Enduring High Energy Laser program, valued at roughly $500 million. Additionally, the company secured a Domestic Shield indefinite delivery indefinite quantity award of broadly similar size. Newer offerings like the P550 and Red Dragon platforms are also gaining momentum.

Technical Analysis

Despite the positive news, the stock remains in recovery mode. AVAV is trading 4.3% below its 20-day SMA, 12.2% below its 50-day SMA, 21.1% below its 100-day SMA, and 40.5% below its 200-day SMA. The death cross from March, where the 50-day SMA moved under the 200-day SMA, indicates a longer-duration downcycle. Key support sits at $135.00, just above the 52-week low zone of $135.20. At the time of publication, AeroVironment shares were up 5.93% at $149.60.

AeroVironment Inc. stock was trading lower by about 1% on Monday as investors pulled back from growth and defense technology stocks. The broader market also weakened, with the Nasdaq down 1.19% and the S&P 500 off 0.38%. The Industrials sector fell 0.53%. AVAV is trading near its 52-week low, making it more vulnerable to broader market swings. Small pullbacks across equities can trigger larger moves in stocks that are already under pressure. Energy led the market with a 2.32% gain, while Technology and Industrials were among the weakest sectors. That backdrop weighed on industrial technology names such as AeroVironment.

Technical Picture Remains Weak

The stock remains in a long-term downtrend. Shares have fallen 45.6% over the past 12 months. AVAV is trading 8.9% below its 20-day simple moving average, 15.6% below its 50-day moving average, 24.5% below its 100-day moving average and 42.5% below its 200-day moving average. Those levels could act as resistance if the stock attempts to rebound. Momentum indicators also remain weak. The MACD sits below its signal line, while the histogram remains negative. In addition, the 20-day moving average remains below the 50-day moving average. A bearish “death cross” formed in March when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average. The next key support level is around $135, which aligns closely with the stock’s 52-week low of $135.20.

JUMP 20 Receives Italian Military Designation

Separately, AeroVironment said Monday that Italy’s Directorate of Aeronautical Armaments and Airworthiness (DAAA) assigned the MQ-31A military designation to its JUMP 20 unmanned aircraft system, formally recognizing the platform as an operational military capability for the Italian Army. The designation follows AeroVironment’s April 2025 contract to supply JUMP 20 VTOL aircraft systems, sustainment, engineering and support services to replace Italy’s legacy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drone fleet while improving NATO interoperability. The company said the JUMP 20 was selected through a competitive procurement process and is also being adopted by allied forces in Denmark, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. The runway-independent system offers more than 13 hours of endurance, a range of 185 kilometers (115 miles), supports more than 70 payloads and has logged more than 500,000 operational flight hours.

Earnings And Analyst Outlook

AeroVironment is expected to report quarterly results on Sept. 8, 2026. Wall Street expects earnings of 36 cents per share, up from 32 cents a year earlier. Revenue is projected at $470.45 million, compared with $454.68 million in the prior-year quarter. The stock has a consensus Buy rating from 43 analysts, with an average price forecast of $227.31. The highest forecast is $320, while the lowest is $166. Recent analyst actions include:

• Citizens lowered its price forecast to $230 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating on July 10.
• Canaccord Genuity lowered its price forecast to $240 and reiterated its Buy rating on July 10.
• Piper Sandler cut its price forecast to $235 while maintaining its Overweight rating on July 9.

Benzinga Edge And ETF Exposure

Benzinga Edge gives AeroVironment a Momentum score of 2.68, indicating weak trend strength. The stock is also a meaningful holding in several exchange-traded funds, including the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR), where it has a 4.49% weighting, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) at 2.26%, and the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) at 5.01%. Fund inflows and outflows can influence demand for AVAV shares. AVAV Stock Price Activity: AeroVironment shares were down 0.64% at $143.66 at the time of publication on Monday.