Reddit could charge Google and OpenAI more for data

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Reviewed by
Radhika SScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target for Reddit following meetings with executives at Cannes Lions. The analyst expects Reddit to charge higher fees to Alphabet and OpenAI for data upon renewal, citing the importance of human authentication for LLMs. Additionally, Reddit's new search product and focus on speed are seen as key drivers for future revenue and user engagement.

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Reddit Inc (NYSE: RDDT) could command higher fees from Alphabet Inc and OpenAI upon the renewal of their GenAI deals, as human authentication becomes a mission-critical layer for Large Language Models (LLMs). This potential for increased revenue streams underpins Needham analyst Laura Martin's reiterated Buy rating and $300 price target for the social media platform.

Martin, who met with Reddit’s CEO and COO at the Cannes Lions festival in France, noted that the company is largely immune from the "Agentic maelstrom." The discussions highlighted that speed is becoming a key performance indicator across the industry, with companies cutting management layers and swapping humans for AI to achieve faster outcomes.

Strategic Initiatives and Product Development

Reddit's leadership outlined several strategic focus areas during the meetings:

  • Data Monetization: New GenAI deals with Alphabet and OpenAI are expected to generate higher fees upon renewal due to the value of human authentication in LLMs.
  • Search Product: A new search product aims to create value by signaling higher user intent, facilitating faster onboarding, and driving additional revenue through increased engagement.
  • Organizational Stability: The company is described as steady, with a focus on upgrading senior executives rather than restructuring its organizational design.
  • Branding: Internal adoption of "The human company" branding continues, with GenAI and Agents being utilized in limited capacities.

Analyst Consensus

Firm Analyst Rating Price Target
Needham Laura Martin Buy $300

The $300 price target suggests significant upside potential, reflecting confidence in Reddit's ability to monetize its user base and expand advertising revenue effectively. Shares of Reddit were down 1.41% at $163.29 at the time of publication.

How will the introduction of the new search product specifically impact user retention metrics and average revenue per user (ARPU)?

What specific metrics will define the success of the 'human authentication' value proposition in upcoming GenAI deal renewals?

Could the reliance on higher fees from a small number of partners like Alphabet and OpenAI pose a concentration risk if those partners develop in-house data solutions?

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Reddit stock surges on AI data value and viral buzz

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Reviewed by
Radhika SScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Reddit Inc shares surged 10.80% to $179.60 on Monday, driven by viral X commentary highlighting the value of its data licensing for AI training. The post by ZaStocks emphasized Reddit's potential for renewed deals with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. This momentum builds on strong Q1 earnings, with revenue up 69% to $663.4 million and adjusted EBITDA rising 131% to $266 million. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with the stock trading above short-term SMAs but below the 200-day SMA.

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Reddit Inc shares rose 10.80% to $179.60 on Monday, driven by intense online discussion regarding the premium value of the company’s data licensing business. The momentum followed viral commentary shared before the market open on the social media platform X by a user named ZaStocks, which drew renewed attention to Reddit’s role in the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

Viral X Post Highlights AI Value

The rally gained momentum after a post by ZaStocks garnered more than 67,000 views. Commentary highlighted the view that Reddit’s vast archive of user-generated discussions has been a key resource for training leading large language models, with the platform reportedly ranking among the most frequently cited domains across major AI systems. The commentary also emphasized that ongoing access to fresh, continuously generated conversations may be more valuable than static historical datasets.

Investors Eye Potential AI Licensing Deals

Following the initial share price movement, ZaStocks posted additional commentary questioning if the market was waking up to Reddit’s core metrics, noting it is the 6th most visited website globally, with no debt, no capex. The user added that the company is "likely to land huge renewed data deals with the biggest AI labs on earth: OpenAI, Google and potentially Anthropic."

Recent Earnings Strength Supports Bull Case

The social media-driven surge builds upon Reddit’s recent financial strength documented on May 1. In its first-quarter results, Reddit reported revenue growth of 69% year-on-year to $663.4 million, alongside a 131% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $266 million. Non-GAAP earnings reached $1.20 per share, beating Needham’s estimates by 9%. Furthermore, advertising revenues grew 74% year-on-year, supported by a 75% increase in active advertisers.

RDDT Technical Picture Remains Mixed

RDDT is trading 9.1% above its 20-day SMA ($164.19) and 13.1% above its 50-day SMA ($158.50). At the same time, it’s still trading 5% below its 200-day SMA ($188.65). Momentum is best framed through RSI, which sits at 48.84—basically neutral. The moving-average structure is mixed: the 20-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA (a bullish near-term alignment), but the death cross from March (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA) still hangs over the longer-term picture. Zooming out, the stock is up 42.06% over the past 12 months, but it remains well below the 52-week high of $282.95.

Metric Value
Key Resistance $187.50
Key Support $178.00
20-day SMA $164.19
50-day SMA $158.50
200-day SMA $188.65

Meme Stock Dynamics Add Fuel

While Reddit is an operating technology business generating revenue through advertising and data licensing, its shares frequently trade with meme-like volatility. Because the platform serves as the birthplace of the retail meme stock phenomenon, traders regularly pile into the ticker, amplifying sentiment-driven price swings independently of fundamental valuations.

How will the valuation of Reddit's data licensing business evolve as competition for unique training datasets intensifies among AI labs?

Can Reddit sustain its current revenue growth rates without securing the specific high-value data licensing deals mentioned by market commentators?

To what extent will Reddit's reliance on volatile meme stock dynamics hinder its ability to trade on fundamental business metrics?

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