Microsoft falls 23% in 2026 as strategist cites overselling
Microsoft Corp. has seen its stock drop nearly 23% in 2026 as investors react to heavy capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, with market cap falling to $2.65 trillion. Despite the decline, Futurum Equities strategist Shay Boloor argues the market is overselling the stock, highlighting 18% revenue growth, 23% EPS growth, and a 40% surge in Azure. Rising capex, estimated at $190 billion for 2026, is pressuring free cash flow and margins, diverting capital from shareholder rewards.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Microsoft Corp. shares have tumbled nearly 23% in 2026, shedding their untouchable status as investors focus on massive capital expenditures for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The stock is on pace for its steepest monthly drop since December 2000, with market cap falling from approximately $4 trillion twelve months ago to $2.65 trillion. Despite the business thriving, the market is valuing Microsoft based on the enormous cost of its future buildout rather than its present earnings, according to Futurum Equities strategist Shay Boloor.
Boloor argues that Wall Street is "significantly overselling" the stock due to short-term fears regarding GPU spending and declining free cash flow. He attributes the sell-off to a hyper-fixation on AI spending, noting that investors are punishing the stock today while ignoring durable earnings power expected by 2027 and 2028. Capital spending hit $38 billion last quarter, and Bank of America estimates Microsoft's 2026 capex will approach $190 billion, driving up prices for chips and memory.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YTD Performance | -23% |
| Current Market Cap | $2.65 trillion |
| Last Quarter Capex | $38 billion |
| Est. 2026 Capex | $190 billion |
| Azure Growth | 40% |
| Revenue Growth | 18% |
The company's core engine is accelerating, with overall revenue growing 18% year-over-year and earnings per share expanding by 23%. Microsoft's cloud segment surpassed $54 billion, with Azure soaring by 40%. Boloor points out that Microsoft possesses "one of the strongest enterprise distribution moats in all of technology," embedding AI into everyday tools like Outlook and Excel to monetize work.
The surge in capex is pressuring margins and reducing free cash flow. Microsoft's capital spending rose 63% year over year, while free cash flow fell 10%. Hyperscaler capex has climbed from 70% of operating cash flow in 2025 to nearly 100% in 2026, leaving less capital for buybacks and dividends. While the Magnificent Seven stocks have struggled, the semiconductor sector has surged, indicating capital is flowing to companies building the AI stack.
At what point will the market shift focus from AI infrastructure costs to the monetization of these investments?
How will the projected $190 billion capex in 2026 impact Microsoft's ability to maintain its dividend and share buyback programs?
Could the surge in hyperscaler capex lead to a supply shortage that further inflates chip and memory prices?

































