Five Nasdaq 100 technology stocks have historically outperformed the broader market in July, led by Apple Inc. with an average return of 7.28% over the past 20 years. The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), rose an average of 2.56% in July during the same period, finishing higher 80% of the time. The tech subset identified includes Lam Research Corporation, Qualcomm Incorporated, ASML Holding N.V., Alphabet Inc., and Apple Inc.

Apple tops the list with a 90% win rate and an active 10-year streak of positive Julys. The iPhone maker has closed July in the red only twice in 20 years, in 2008 and 2015. Apple is set to report fiscal third-quarter results on July 30 after the market close.

Alphabet Inc. delivered an average July return of 5.76% with a 75% success rate. The Google parent recorded its best July in 2015 with a 21.75% gain and its worst in 2008 with a 10.01% loss. Alphabet strung together nine straight positive Julys from 2015 through 2023 before a decline in 2024, followed by an 8.89% rebound in 2025. Shares are up 16% year to date.

ASML Holding N.V. averaged a 5.05% return in July with a 60% hit rate. The sole supplier of EUV lithography machines saw its best July in 2022, rising 20.71%, and its worst last year with a 13.31% drop. Despite falling in each of the last three Julys, the stock remains one of the strongest large-cap performers of 2026, up roughly 55% year to date.

Qualcomm Incorporated produced an average July gain of 4.19% with a 60% win rate. The chip supplier's standout performance was in 2008 with a 24.72% gain, while its low was in 2006 with a 12% loss. Qualcomm has posted back-to-back negative Julys in 2024 and 2025. Shares are up 4% year to date.

Lam Research Corporation averaged a 4.01% July return over 20 years, finishing higher 60% of the time. Its best July was in 2022 at 17.45%, and its worst was in 2024 at -13.49%. The chip-equipment maker has slipped in each of the last two Julys but has surged 79.6% year to date. Lam is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings later this month.

Historical July Performance of Selected Tech Stocks

Apple Inc. experienced a 9% year-over-year decline in iPhone sales during China's 2026 618 shopping festival, despite regaining the No. 2 position in the market through steep discounts. According to Counterpoint Research, the sales drop occurred during the four-week promotional period as the company faced tougher comparisons against the previous year's aggressive promotions for the iPhone 16 series. The broader market also contracted, with total smartphone sales falling 13% year over year due to rising memory prices and reduced discounting.

Apple's Discounts Boost Market Share

To stimulate demand, Apple initiated promotions approximately a month before the festival, offering savings of up to 2,000 yuan (about $290) on the iPhone 17 Pro series. These incentives included official discounts, e-commerce platform offers, and trade-in deals. While these measures helped Apple climb to the second spot in China's smartphone rankings, the research firm noted that the gains came at the expense of pricing power. The year-over-year decline was attributed to the fact that Apple had run even more aggressive promotions for the iPhone 16 series during the prior year's event.

Market Slowdown and Huawei's Growth

The Chinese smartphone market faced broad headwinds during the period. Rising memory prices compelled manufacturers to increase device prices and scale back discounts, which dampened consumer demand in an already soft environment. Huawei emerged as the standout performer, becoming the only major smartphone brand to post year-over-year growth. The company captured a 21% market share, driven by strong demand for the Enjoy 90 Pro Max and solid performance from the Mate 80.

In contrast, other Chinese Android vendors, including OPPO, HONOR, vivo, and Xiaomi, all reported double-digit sales declines. Counterpoint Research noted that these manufacturers prioritized profitability over aggressive discounting strategies.

Outlook and Technical Analysis

Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects China's smartphone market to weaken further in the second half of 2026. Vendors and supply chain partners have indicated that higher prices are likely to persist as manufacturers continue to adopt a profit-first strategy and trim shipment plans. Consequently, the firm forecasts a double-digit decline in China's smartphone shipments for the full year.

Apple's stock technical indicators remain constructive. The shares are trading 6.8% above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), 7% above the 50-day SMA, 13.6% above the 100-day SMA, and 16.2% above the 200-day SMA. The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, while the 50-day stays above the 200-day SMA, reinforcing a bullish "golden cross" formation. Resistance is near $317.50, close to the 52-week high of about $317.40, while initial support sits around $287.50.

Earnings and Analyst Expectations

Apple is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on July 30. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.89 per share, up from $1.57 a year earlier, on revenue of $108.86 billion compared with $94.04 billion in the prior-year period. The stock currently trades at about 37.9 times earnings. Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price forecast of $324.16. Recent analyst actions include Evercore ISI reiterating an Outperform rating with a $365 price target, KGI Securities downgrading the stock to Hold with a $315 target, and Bank of America maintaining a Buy rating with a $380 target.