Apple Inc.'s long-rumored foldable iPhone could arrive later than the rest of the iPhone 18 lineup, with supply constraints potentially delaying preorders and sales until the fourth quarter of 2026, according to prominent analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The delay stems from manufacturing challenges that are expected to limit early production volumes, mirroring the rollout strategy used for the iPhone X in 2017.

Supply Chain Constraints Limit Early Shipments

Kuo's latest supply-chain checks indicate assembly shipments of Apple's first foldable iPhone will total roughly 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026. Third-quarter shipments are expected to reach only 500,000 to 1 million units, significantly lower than the estimated 20 million to 22 million iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max units being assembled during the same period.

Because of these limited volumes, Kuo believes Apple may follow a strategy similar to the one it used for the iPhone X in 2017. While the foldable device could be unveiled alongside other iPhone 18 models, preorders and retail availability may come weeks later. "The foldable iPhone is highly similar to the iPhone X in this regard: both use an innovative user experience as a key selling point, while manufacturing challenges limit early production," Kuo wrote.

High Price and Tight Supply Fuel Demand

Demand for the foldable iPhone is expected to remain strong despite a projected price of about $2,300 to $2,500. According to the analyst, limited initial availability, a distinctive design and Apple's entry into the foldable category could result in immediate sellouts once preorders begin. Delivery times could quickly extend to "4–6 weeks or longer" and remain elevated through the end of 2026. Kuo also suggested resale prices could temporarily rise well above Apple's official pricing due to constrained supply.

Long-Term Demand to Be Tested in 2027

While early demand is expected to be boosted by launch excitement and holiday-season buying, Kuo said the best gauge of the device's long-term appeal will likely come in late 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, after production stabilizes and supply bottlenecks ease. As those temporary factors fade, it will become clearer whether demand for Apple's first foldable iPhone is sustainable.

Apple Inc. raised prices on several hardware products, including the MacBook Neo, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, HomePod, HomePod mini, and Apple TV, citing tightening memory and storage supplies as AI infrastructure spending accelerates. The price increases, which leave iPhone pricing unchanged, reflect the cost pressures of the artificial intelligence boom and the company's strategy to navigate supply chain constraints. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that 15% to 20% of memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics in 2026 could be redirected to AI data centers in 2027, widening the supply-demand gap. Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has indicated that memory markets could stay tight beyond calendar 2027.

What Is Driving Apple’s Recent Price Increases?

Apple’s latest round of increases includes a $100 jump on the MacBook Neo to $699 and a $200 increase on the MacBook Air 512GB to $1,299. Bigger-ticket moves include the iPad Air 128GB rising from $599 to $749 and the iPad Pro WiFi 256GB increasing from $999 to $1,199. The company is reportedly engaging with Chinese memory suppliers to address component cost and supply crunches, though qualifying new vendors involves testing and security reviews.

Market Position and Performance

AAPL shares were trading 1.73% higher at $299.46 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is sitting essentially flat versus its 20-day SMA ($294.88) and modestly above its 50-day SMA ($292.67). The bigger-picture trend remains constructive, with price about 6.6% above the 100-day SMA ($276.59) and about 9.1% above the 200-day SMA ($270.33). Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate AAPL maintains strong momentum and quality scores but a weak value score.