U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly dismissed a report accusing advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff of profiting $9 billion from market manipulation during U.S.-Iran negotiations. Vance labeled the allegations as "completely bogus" in a post on X on Thursday, stating he never received a message from Iran regarding the matter. The Vice President defended the advisers as trusted members of the president’s team and close friends, emphasizing their efforts toward peace in the region.

Vance Publicly Defends Kushner And Witkoff

Vance responded directly to a report by Drop Site News, which cited an unnamed Iranian official claiming Tehran calculated $9 billion in alleged market-manipulation profits by President Donald Trump's associates. The report stated that Iran requested $4.5 billion through intermediaries and warned Vance during talks in Switzerland that the advisers were "abusing" negotiations for financial gain. Vance rejected these assertions, calling the idea that they were trading on insider information "absurd."

"I see a lot of BS flying around and I normally just ignore it," Vance wrote. "But Steve and Jared are good dudes and I’m honored to work with them."

Unverified Iran Claims Drive Fresh Dispute

The disputed report alleged that Iran warned the U.S. team that Kushner and Witkoff were "more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal." It further claimed that "the exchanged texts will ultimately become part of the historical record." Vance's denial followed his recent remarks on a podcast suggesting some Israeli officials were manipulating American public opinion to prolong the war, a sentiment Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump agreed with regarding foreign influence.

Iran Accord Frays As Strikes Continue

Tensions have escalated as last month’s U.S.-Iran memorandum appears to be unraveling. The accord, which extended a ceasefire for 60 days and sought to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has been violated by attacks on commercial vessels according to Washington. In response, CENTCOM announced that aircraft, drones, and warships struck dozens of Iranian military targets for a sixth consecutive night. More than 50,000 U.S. service members are currently operating across the Middle East. Trump has threatened to continue strikes into next week, noting that energy targets would be prioritized last, and recently abandoned a proposed 20% Hormuz fee.

Amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the prediction market is assigning a low probability to the prospect of Donald Trump visiting the country. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $1.5 million has been bet on the contract "Will Donald Trump visit Iran?" Bettors have placed a 4.7% probability on the event occurring "Before Jan 1, 2027."

The market activity follows recent military actions in the region. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) revealed that it conducted fresh strikes against Iran, targeting Iranian military infrastructure. CENTCOM stated that "More than 50,000 U.S. service members are operating across the Middle East and remain vigilant, lethal, and ready."

Geopolitical risks remain elevated due to potential disruptions in critical shipping routes. Reports indicate that Iran has directed Yemen’s Houthi movement to prepare for the closure of the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. attacks Iranian power infrastructure. The Houthis have reportedly positioned missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, to assault shipping.

Separately, another prediction market contract is focused on the duration of sanctions. Bettors are wagering on when the U.S. will announce the end of the Iran blockade. The current market data suggests a low probability that the U.S. will end the blockade by July 24.

Prediction Market Data