Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed Washington’s willingness to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran while expressing skepticism about Tehran’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. At an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Manila on Wednesday, Rubio stated that the United States remains open to constructive negotiations provided commitments are honored, but emphasized that the current issue is Iran is “not serious about talks.” He warned that if Iran is not serious, the US will “do what’s necessary” to protect its interests and those of its allies.

Rubio addressed Iran’s demands to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, stating such a move threatens the fundamental principle of freedom of navigation and “cannot be allowed to happen.” The comments come as President Donald Trump signaled a possible escalation, suggesting American forces could soon target an area near Iran’s main uranium enrichment facilities. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the US has no interest in meeting until Iran is ready to do so in a meaningful way.

The financial markets reacted to the geopolitical tensions. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil rose 0.80% to $84.73 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures jumped 3.88% to $87.62 per barrel. Meanwhile, the cost of the US-Israel war against Iran has been officially estimated at $37.5 billion by the Pentagon, a figure revealed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a Senate hearing.

Key Market and Conflict Data

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began striking military targets in Iran at 7:00 p.m. ET for the 11th consecutive night, at the Commander in Chief's direction, to continue degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest round of strikes marks a further escalation in a sustained military campaign that has now extended across more than a week of consecutive nightly operations. The operations continue to target Iranian military assets that have been used to threaten commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the strategically critical waterway. The campaign remains authorized under a 60-day period notified to Congress under the War Powers Act, with over 50,000 U.S. service members currently operating across the Middle East.

Military Operations and Strategic Context

The ongoing campaign represents a significant and sustained escalation, with CENTCOM confirming successive rounds of strikes on Iran's military infrastructure. Earlier operations targeted Iran's coastal surveillance, air defense sites, and military logistics infrastructure, before expanding to Tehran's military assets. President Donald Trump directed the strikes to hold Iran accountable, stating that the U.S. is "winning big" in Iran and that results would be visible shortly. The escalation follows Iran's violation of a memorandum of understanding regarding attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also mentioned plans to rescind the 20% fee on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and previously indicated that Iranian energy targets are being saved for last.

Market Reaction and Commodity Prices

The sustained military activity continues to impact global financial markets and commodity prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was trading at $79.76 per barrel, while Brent crude surged 0.85% to $84.95 per barrel. The United States Oil Fund (USO) rose 0.96% to $120.45 during after-hours trading. Domestic fuel prices also reflected the ongoing tension, with the spot price of jet fuel at $3.57 per gallon and the national average price of gas at $3.9430 per gallon.