Trump stated that oil prices will drop sharply when the war with Iran ends, linking geopolitical conflict directly to global energy pricing.

Trump's statement on oil and the Iran conflict

The remarks connect the ongoing conflict involving Iran to elevated oil price levels, with Trump asserting that a resolution would lead to a sharp decline in prices. No specific figures, timelines, or additional context were provided alongside the statement.

The statement draws a direct link between the geopolitical situation involving Iran and the current trajectory of oil prices, suggesting that the conflict is a contributing factor to prevailing price levels.

Brent crude futures settled at $108.79 per barrel, marking a 0.69% decline or 76 cents from the previous session. This drop follows Friday's close of $109.55, which had itself marked a slight dip from earlier highs.

The market remains volatile as persistent disruptions to global energy supplies driven by conflicts involving the U.S., Iran, and Russia-Ukraine continue to influence pricing.

Price trajectory and benchmarks

The benchmark rebounded after a summer slump. Brent topped $120 in late April following the launch of combat operations in Iran by the U.S. and Israel. Prices subsequently fell below $80 during June and July under a ceasefire that both sides later accused each other of violating.

Since then, the conflict has extended toward the eight-month mark, pushing crude back above $100. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American benchmark, also exceeded $100 on Friday for the first time since September 21.

Consumer impact at the pump

The rally has intensified costs for consumers. Regular gasoline averaged approximately $4.3344 per gallon on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Diesel, critical for freight and trucking, averaged $6.3173, which is nearly $2.67 higher than the same period last year.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted the cumulative financial burden: "Americans have now spent $135 billion more on gasoline and diesel purchases since March 1 than the same period last year."

Geopolitical drivers and policy responses

President Donald Trump has attempted to mitigate costs through agreements with Russia to boost diesel exports to global markets. However, these efforts face significant hurdles. Ukraine ended a two-day pause on strikes against Russian refineries. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Kyiv would only resume a pause if it receives additional U.S.-made Patriot interceptors.

Both countries have reportedly defied Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire, maintaining pressure on supply chains.