Mediators are renewing efforts to negotiate a settlement between the United States and Iran, days after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian request to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks to end the war. Negotiators are due to give over the latest updated copy of a potential interim agreement to Iran on Tuesday, according to two individuals briefed on the talks.

Skepticism over Tehran's intentions

Trump remains skeptical that Iran would meet his proposals. The Wall Street Journal reported that a likely scenario involves the resumption of bombings. This stance persists despite earlier reports of U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussing a phased path out of the war in New York.

Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear discussions in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade of the country’s ports. However, Trump’s position could shift as the conflict continues or based on midterm election results.

Military constraints and ongoing talks

The intensity of potential renewed attacks remains undetermined. Trump is reportedly unwilling to restart significant military operations partly because the U.S. intends to retain declining munitions stocks for other emergencies.

Negotiations are continuing through mediators, including discussions on nuclear issues. A U.S.-led initiative ensuring oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the urgency for an immediate deal. Washington has informed Tehran and mediators that it does not plan to remove the maritime embargo.

Political timelines and diplomatic signals

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country is willing to make a peace deal with the U.S. before the November midterms. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Pezeshkian urged Washington to return to the June memorandum of understanding that established a framework for a temporary ceasefire before collapsing.

In his UN address, Trump indicated his administration could reach a peace agreement with Iran after the midterms. However, he previously warned he could "annihilate" Iran if Tehran fails to reach a deal to end the conflict.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management CEO Ross Gerber warned that rising U.S. Treasury yields and federal debt exceeding $40 trillion could cost the country hundreds of billions in extra interest payments.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 10 bps to 5.223% on Thursday, its highest level since June 2007. The 30-year yield reached 5.501%, a level not seen since June 2004, while the two-year yield rose to 4.941%. Gerber noted the 10-year yield was at 5.11% earlier in the week, up from 4% a year ago.

Rising Borrowing Costs and Policy Concerns

Gerber attributed the surge in borrowing costs to what he described as damaging trade and foreign policies under the current administration. He stated that fiscal deficits and the massive debt load have become a national security issue.

"No foreign governments want our debt or will finance America due to errant policies on trade and basically crappy diplomacy," Gerber wrote on X. He argued that investors have alternatives to government bonds and that existing bondholders have suffered significant losses as yields rose.

Market Reaction and Implications

The sell-off in government bonds continued as investors bet on another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Higher Treasury yields increase the cost for the government to borrow money when issuing new debt or refinancing existing obligations. These higher rates also push up mortgage rates, making home purchases more expensive for Americans.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the 10-year yield's year-over-year increase (from 4% to 5.223%) and the absolute debt level ($40 trillion) highlights the compounding effect of rising rates on existing liabilities. While the source does not provide specific interest payment figures, Gerber’s assertion that costs could rise by "hundreds of billions" is directly linked to the combination of high outstanding debt and the sharp upward trajectory of yields across the curve.