President Donald Trump predicted a sweeping Republican victory in the 2026 midterm elections on Monday, despite polling data indicating a current advantage for Democrats among registered voters.

Trump Predicts ‘BIG’ Republican Midterm Victory

Trump used his Labor Day message to attack Democrats, accusing the "Radical Left" of trying to "destroy our Country." He declared that Republicans would prevail in November, stating, "We’re going to win the Midterms, BIG, and SAVE AMERICA!"

The president added that Democrats should be "exhausted by now" after fighting for 10 years but noted they are not. He pledged to campaign heavily for GOP candidates in the final stretch of the midterm campaign.

Polling Data Shows Democratic Lead

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found that 37% of registered voters believed Democrats had a better approach to the economy, narrowly ahead of the 36% who favored Republicans. The survey also revealed that 42% of registered voters would vote for a Democratic candidate if congressional elections were held at the time, compared with 37% who would back a Republican.

Among independent voters, Democrats held a 12-percentage-point advantage over Republicans.

Economic Headwinds and Market Reaction

Trump recently stated that the U.S. should have the world’s lowest interest rate. He threatened to halt trade with countries running trade surpluses with the U.S. if the Federal Reserve refuses to cut rates.

WTI crude oil rose 1.10% to $92.49 per barrel on Monday evening. Brent crude increased 0.11% to $97.11. Natural gas fell 0.64% to $2.956 per MMBtu.

Political Reactions

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) criticized the administration, citing high fuel prices. She claimed Americans were facing the "highest Labor Day gas prices EVER RECORDED" due to the war with Iran.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) focused on organized labor, noting that worker protections were won through years of activism. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the administration’s economic record, stating that real wages are outpacing inflation.

Veteran investor Peter Schiff commented on Labor Day, highlighting the risks taken by small business owners.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Trump’s prediction of a "BIG" victory and the Reuters/Ipsos data is stark. While Trump claims dominance, the polling indicates Democrats lead in both economic management preference (37% vs 36%) and direct congressional vote intent (42% vs 37%). This suggests a potential gap between campaign rhetoric and current voter sentiment.

Trump declared 'that era is over' in a Truth Social post, demanding that Bombardier build its aircraft in the United States if it wants access to the American market and stop 'treating America like a piggybank.'

Trump's demand to Bombardier

In the post, Trump issued a direct ultimatum to the Canadian aerospace manufacturer, stating that Bombardier must establish manufacturing operations within the United States as a condition for continued access to the American market. The message framed the current arrangement as one-sided and no longer acceptable.

Trump's post on Truth Social carried a broader 'America First' message, extending beyond aviation to encompass consumer goods and leisure. The full statement included calls to:

• Buy American
• Fly on American airliners
• Enjoy American liquor and beverages
• Sail on Lake America

Key details from the Truth Social post

The statement did not specify any timeline, tariff measures, or regulatory action accompanying the demand. No financial figures or trade data were cited in the post.