President Donald Trump has reportedly sanctioned a groundbreaking nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, potentially equipping the kingdom with uranium enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear program. Estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars, the agreement is set to last 30 years and could pave the way for a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia after a joint U.S.-Saudi study. The deal aims to deepen U.S.-Saudi ties while countering Russian and Chinese influence in Riyadh's nuclear sector, though it has sparked significant concern regarding nuclear proliferation.

Under the proposed terms, American companies would construct a uranium enrichment facility if the joint assessment deems it necessary. To mitigate security risks, the facility would operate under a “black box” arrangement designed to prevent the transfer of sensitive enrichment technology to Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration asserts this method ensures enriched uranium is not diverted for military use and that spent reactor fuel cannot be reprocessed into weapons-grade material. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to sign the agreement with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Monitoring and Safeguards

A notable omission in the deal is the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) “Additional Protocol,” which provides for enhanced monitoring, inspections, and verification. While Saudi Arabia remains a member of the IAEA, the absence of this specific protocol has raised alarms among nonproliferation experts. The agreement is subject to congressional review, where it may face opposition from lawmakers wary of fueling regional nuclear competition.

Key Provisions and Opposition

The agreement includes several stipulations intended to balance cooperation with security:

Critics argue that without strict safeguards, the deal could undermine the “gold standard” agreement established with the United Arab Emirates. Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official, noted that while the deal could revive the U.S. nuclear industry, it risks heightening proliferation risks in the Middle East. Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies called the deal “bad” and urged Congress to reject it, warning it could encourage the spread of uranium enrichment capabilities.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis threatened to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, citing an "unjust and oppressive siege" by the Saudis as the reason. The group has escalated tensions by emailing shipping companies to warn them against loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports, with vessels violating the directive facing potential "targeting" within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces.

Houthis Warn Shipping Companies

The Houthi military spokesperson announced the naval blockade and "sea navigation ban," explicitly identifying Saudi oil installations and key facilities as prospective targets. In an email to shipping firms, the group stated, "We strongly recommend that your company exercise due diligence and the utmost care in all its dealings." The warning underscores the heightened state of conflict and places critical regional energy assets at risk.

Prediction Market Weighs the Odds

Polymarket, a prediction platform based on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) network, is currently hosting a contract on whether the Houthis will successfully target shipping. Over $374,000 has been wagered on the outcome. Bettors assign a 36% probability to a successful attack by July 31, with odds rising to 53% for August 15 and peaking at 57% for August 31.

US Defense Funding Request

Amid the rising tensions, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has requested nearly $70 billion in supplemental war funding. The Pentagon has raised its official cost estimate for the US-Israel war against Iran to $37.5 billion. Hegseth told senators that without these funds, the US faces "critical shortfalls."