Trump approval falls to record low of 36% as Iran war drags
- Trump's approval rating falls to a record low of 36% in the latest NBC News poll.
- Disapproval rises to 64%, driven primarily by dissatisfaction with the Iran War.
- Strong Republican approval drops to 41%, falling below 50% for the first time.
- SPY ETF gains 12.1% YTD despite political headwinds and war-related concerns.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% in the latest NBC News poll, marking a new low for his second term. The decline is largely attributed to voter dissatisfaction with the handling of the Iran War.
The disapproval rating rose to 64%, up from the spring poll conducted in March and April. The current survey was carried out between August 20 and September 1.
Republican Support Erosion
Support among Trump’s base has weakened, with Republican approval dropping to 80% from 83% in the spring. Notably, only 41% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump, down from 52%. This marks the first time in the NBC poll that the strong approval rating among Republicans has fallen below 50%.
Iran War Impact
The Iran War remains the primary driver of negative sentiment, contributing to higher gas prices. Only 31% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict, compared to 69% who disapprove. This represents a slight deterioration from the spring poll figures of 33% approval and 67% disapproval.
Among Republicans, strong approval for Trump’s war handling fell to 30%, an 18-point drop from the previous poll. Among self-identified MAGA Republicans, strong approval declined by 21 points to 43%.
Market Context
Despite the political headwinds, equity markets have continued to perform well. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) is up 12.1% year-to-date, having hit all-time highs last month. However, the disconnect between market performance and voter opinion on the war suggests that economic indicators alone may not offset political dissatisfaction.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between overall Republican approval (80%) and strong approval (41%) indicates a significant softening in the intensity of support within Trump’s core base. While the majority still approve, the drop in strong approval below the 50% threshold signals a potential vulnerability in mobilizing loyal supporters, particularly regarding foreign policy decisions like the Iran War.
How might the erosion of strong approval among MAGA Republicans impact voter turnout and mobilization efforts in upcoming midterm elections?
Could the disconnect between rising equity markets and falling political approval signal an impending correction if economic indicators like gas prices continue to deteriorate?
What specific policy adjustments or diplomatic strategies could the administration employ to mitigate the negative sentiment surrounding the Iran War?
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