A new survey by Stanton Chase reveals that 77% of organizations were caught off guard by a geopolitical development at least once in the past year. The report highlights a significant gap between the frequency of geopolitical surprises and the level of preparedness among leadership teams globally.

The findings are based on responses from 112 senior executives across EMEA, North America, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. Only 16% of leadership teams have run a geopolitical stress test in the past three months, while 55% admit to having never conducted a structured exercise.

Impact on business decisions

Geopolitical uncertainty has directly influenced strategic choices, with 49% of leadership teams delaying, revisiting, or reversing a decision that had already been approved. Specifically, 16% of respondents reversed or abandoned a decision, while 17% revisited it before proceeding and 16% delayed it.

Preparedness appears to correlate with decision stability. Among teams that recently ran a stress test, only 33% changed an approved decision, compared with 50% of teams that had never rehearsed scenarios.

Operational pressures and capabilities

Executives identified specific areas feeling the pressure of geopolitical instability. Pricing and cost pass-through was cited as the most affected area by 31% of respondents, followed by supply chain and sourcing at 23%. Only 15% reported no notable impact on their business.

When assessing concerns, 37% of executives named the difficulty of predicting second-order and knock-on effects as their greatest worry, surpassing the instability itself at 29%.

In terms of leadership capabilities, 51% of executives value cost discipline and efficiency more due to geopolitical uncertainty. Operational resilience and business continuity followed at 47%, while government and policy fluency ranked lower at 31%.

What the Numbers Show

There is a notable divergence in hiring practices despite the risks. Geopolitical risk has not changed where 68% of organizations hire or base senior leaders. However, 18% now favor local hires over cross-border searches, a preference more common in EMEA at 23% compared to 10% elsewhere. Additionally, organizations shifting to local hires place a higher premium on regional market knowledge (55%) compared to the wider panel (35%).