S&P 500 rises 0.81% as chip stocks rally
The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to close at 7,543.64 on Thursday, driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks and easing oil prices. Despite the rally, Polymarket traders assign only a 20% probability to the index opening higher on Friday. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.22% early Friday as investors remained cautious about geopolitical risks and inflation.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to close at 7,543.64 on Thursday as semiconductor stocks rebounded and oil prices eased. However, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Friday, reflecting expectations of a weaker start after the latest rally. The July 10 Polymarket contract implied just a 20% probability that the index would open higher on Friday.
Market Drivers
Thursday’s rally underscored how quickly sentiment can shift as investors weighed easing oil prices against persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Semiconductor stocks once again led the market higher, reinforcing the view that artificial intelligence remains the primary driver of this year’s bull market even as investors rotate between sectors.
Key Stock Movements
Chip stocks remained the market’s biggest source of strength. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) rose 2.5%, while Micron (NASDAQ: MU) gained 4.5% and Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) jumped 7.6%. Optimism also spread across Asia, with SoftBank surging more than 11% and South Korean technology stocks advancing ahead of SK Hynix’s Nasdaq debut.
| Asset | Movement |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.81% (7,543.64) |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) | +2.5% |
| Micron (MU) | +4.5% |
| Sandisk (SNDK) | +7.6% |
| SoftBank | +11% |
| S&P 500 Futures | -0.22% |
Geopolitical and Economic Factors
Cooling oil prices helped improve risk appetite after President Donald Trump said Iran had reached out seeking negotiations, while officials from Qatar and Pakistan continued efforts to restart talks between Washington and Tehran. Still, futures turned lower overnight as investors remained wary of the geopolitical backdrop and elevated inflation risks. Investors also remain cautious that persistent price pressures could keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path, even as the market continues to trade near record highs.
Upcoming Events
Markets are also watching the U.S. debut of South Korean memory-chip giant SK Hynix on Friday, alongside second-quarter earnings from Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), for fresh signals on investor appetite heading into earnings season. The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,491.60, above Wednesday’s close of 7,482.71, meaning the July 9 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $25,832 in traded volume before settling — the lightest participation since the start of July.
Will the semiconductor rally sustain momentum if SK Hynix's U.S. debut fails to meet investor expectations?
How might renewed diplomatic talks with Iran influence oil price volatility and subsequent market sentiment in the coming weeks?
Could persistent inflation risks force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially reversing the S&P 500's recent gains?
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