Report: 10% of CA EVs could provide 9 GW grid storage by 2036
GridLab, Kevala, and E3 released a roadmap to modernize California's demand flexibility programs, aiming to lower costs and improve reliability. The report highlights that enrolling 10% of projected EVs in vehicle-to-grid programs by 2036 could provide 9 GW of storage, covering over one-third of the state's long-duration storage target. It calls for standardized, performance-based incentives to unlock the value of distributed energy resources.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
A new policy roadmap released by GridLab, Kevala, and E3 argues that modernizing demand flexibility programs is essential for stabilizing California's electric grid and lowering electricity costs. The report, titled "Unlocking California's Flexible Load: A Durable Blueprint for Affordability and Reliability," identifies practical steps to integrate customer-owned energy resources, such as electric vehicles (EVs), home batteries, and smart buildings, into grid operations.
The findings were informed by roundtable discussions facilitated by the Energy & Efficiency Institute at University of California Davis. The report builds on a 2024 study by GridLab and The Brattle Group, which estimated that virtual power plants (VPPs) could save California utilities and consumers $550 million annually while meeting more than 15% of the state's peak electricity demand.
What the Numbers Show
The scale of the opportunity lies in the existing infrastructure within homes and driveways. The report highlights that enrolling just 10% of California's projected EVs in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) programs by 2036 could provide approximately 9 GW of 12-hour storage. This figure represents more than one-third of the state's 2036 long-duration storage procurement target, suggesting that distributed resources can significantly offset the need for centralized storage investments.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Potential VPP Savings | $550 million annually | Based on 2024 GridLab/Brattle Group study |
| Peak Demand Coverage | >15% | Share of state peak demand met by VPPs |
| V2G Storage Potential | 9 GW | From enrolling 10% of projected EVs by 2036 |
| Storage Target Contribution | >33% | One-third of 2036 long-duration storage target |
"The next generation of grid infrastructure is already sitting in our driveways, homes, and businesses," said Ric O'Connell, Executive Director of GridLab. "The question isn't whether California has the resources — it's whether our programs are designed to unlock their full value."
Standardization and Incentives
The report notes that current demand flexibility programs vary across utilities, creating a fragmented customer experience that limits participation. To address this, the authors recommend standardized, interoperable program frameworks that align incentives across utilities. Key recommendations include:
- Standardizing program design to create a consistent customer experience across California.
- Implementing performance-based incentives that reward verified grid services rather than simple participation.
- Expanding participation from EVs, batteries, smart buildings, and other distributed energy resources.
- Improving interoperability and market coordination through consistent program frameworks.
- Paying below avoided costs for robustly measured incremental grid impacts to lower costs for all ratepayers.
Eric Cutter, Partner at E3, emphasized that affordability is central to these recommendations. Drawing on lessons from California's experience with Net Energy Metering (NEM), the report argues that programs must reward customers for measurable grid value without increasing bills for others. "Only by aligning incentives with grid value and verified performance will demand flexibility help lower system costs," Cutter said.
Ed Randolph, former Director of the Energy Division at the California Public Utilities Commission, added that scaling demand flexibility requires making existing programs work better together. "Customers shouldn't have to navigate different rules depending on where they live," he said.
As California continues to electrify transportation, buildings, and industry, the report positions demand flexibility as a foundational grid resource alongside renewable generation and energy storage.
How might the California Public Utilities Commission adjust its regulatory framework to enforce the recommended standardized program designs across competing utilities?
What specific technological or cybersecurity hurdles must be overcome to ensure the safe integration of 9 GW of vehicle-to-grid capacity into the state's existing grid infrastructure?
Could the shift toward performance-based incentives for distributed energy resources lead to a consolidation of virtual power plant operators, and how would that affect market competition?

























