Reflective released its interactive SAI Research Roadmap for Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on September 10, 2026. The plan aims to coordinate global research and funding to address critical scientific uncertainties regarding sunlight reflection.

The non-profit organization estimates that an informed decision on whether to begin monitored planetary cooling is possible in 10 years for approximately $370 million. This timeline depends on coordinated research efforts and a clinical-trial approach where each phase must clear defined criteria before proceeding.

Context and Urgency

The release follows the UN Environment Programme’s Limiting Overshoot report, which concluded that exceeding 1.5°C of warming is now unavoidable. Reflective notes that while decarbonization addresses the root cause of climate change, SAI could temporarily lower global temperatures to mitigate extreme heat and other impacts while emissions cuts take effect.

Dakota Gruener, CEO of Reflective, stated that the roadmap provides a shared plan for funders and scientists. He emphasized that the ten-year timeline is a choice contingent on rapid funding and coordination rather than a prediction.

What the Numbers Show

The $370 million estimate represents a best-case scenario for narrowing consequential scientific uncertainties over a decade. This figure covers technical research ranging from particle behavior in the stratosphere to global climate effects. The roadmap scopes each activity with specific costs and timelines to direct effort toward the most valuable questions.

Reflective will present the roadmap at Frontiers Science House during New York Climate Week on September 21st.