Polymarket traders are leaning heavily bullish for the September 30 trading session, assigning a 72% probability that the S&P 500 will open higher. This prediction aligns with early Wednesday trends where U.S. stock futures pointed toward a green open across major indices.

Market drivers and geopolitical backdrop

Equity futures advanced as Wall Street assessed fresh corporate earnings, stabilizing oil prices, and significant domestic inflation data. The broader market sentiment was influenced by shifting geopolitical dynamics, including the withdrawal of American troops from remaining bases in Iraq after 23 years. Concurrently, Qatar continues shuttle diplomacy to mediate the seven-month-old U.S.-Iran conflict. Energy markets saw modest moves with Brent crude trading at $96.40 a barrel, up 0.25%, and WTI crude at $89.59 a barrel, higher by 0.23%.

Economic data and earnings schedule

Wednesday features a packed calendar of critical economic reports and earnings releases. Investors are monitoring the ADP national employment report, the second-quarter GDP third estimate, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges, specifically headline and core PCE price index data. Additionally, the Chicago business barometer and a speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled.

The earnings docket is headlined by memory chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU). Other notable releases include Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL), FactSet Research System Inc. (NYSE: FDS), ConAgra Brands Inc. (NYSE: CAG), and Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM).

Index performance and previous outcomes

The previous Polymarket contract for September 29 resolved "Down," recording $65,448 in total trading volume. This outcome aligned with bearish expectations as major indexes struggled against surging yields. On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) fell 0.18% to $764.20, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) rose 0.19% to $737.93. The State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA) ended 0.22% lower at $512.88.

Strategic outlook

Market strategist Louis Navellier notes that the fourth quarter is historically strong, particularly in the third year of a Presidential election cycle. He argues that despite rising global interest rates driven by bond vigilantes in countries with demographic challenges, U.S. growth stocks should remain resilient against value stocks. Navellier highlights that a strong U.S. dollar, propelled by high forecasted third-quarter GDP growth and recent onshoring efforts supported by Section 338 tariffs against Canada, specifically benefits small-cap stocks with high domestic revenue exposure.