Prediction markets indicate rising odds that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, will make a public appearance by July 31. Polymarket, a Polygon-based platform, shows a 33% probability for this event, with over $3.3 million wagered on the contract. The likelihood of an appearance is currently placed at 3% for June 30 and peaks at 51% for September 30.

Market Odds on Public Appearance

The prediction market data reflects shifting expectations regarding Khamenei's visibility following his appointment. He has not appeared publicly since succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly injured in the same strikes and has remained hidden since.

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Probabilities

Separately, the platform is tracking bets on a final nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. The market assigns a 5% probability to a deal being signed by July 31, a decrease of 41%. The odds improve to 22% for a deal by August 18.

Iran has issued a pointed warning to the United States, demanding that Washington honor its commitments and avoid interpretations that contradict the explicit terms of the war-end Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Tehran further stated that contradictory US statements on a possible war-ending agreement are deepening Iranian mistrust of Washington, adding a fresh layer of tension to an already fragile diplomatic process. The warning marks a significant escalation in the war of words between the two sides, coming amid sharply conflicting accounts over the finality and substance of the negotiations.

Iran had previously stated that it has not reached a final decision on a proposed peace agreement with the US, directly contradicting President Donald Trump's claim that the deal had received backing from the country's highest leadership. Trump had announced that planned strikes against Iran were canceled following negotiations and characterized the framework as a "very strong MOU," asserting that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had approved it. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, however, stated that while large portions of the agreement had been finalized, Tehran had not concluded its review, saying: "We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter."

US Administration Pushes Back on Leaked Terms

Trump directly accused Iran of leaking false deal terms to the media, stating: "The terms that Iran leaked out to the fake news have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with." Adding to the pushback from Washington, US Vice President JD Vance took to X to counter what he described as widespread misinformation surrounding the potential agreement. Vance stated: "I'm seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen the Strait and end Iran's nuclear weapons program. First, the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting."

Deal Status and Key Developments

The core objective of the agreement remains ensuring that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran's latest warning that the US must honor the explicit terms of the MOU and refrain from contradictory interpretations has further complicated the diplomatic picture. The following table outlines the current state of the diplomatic process based on available statements:

Market Impact and Economic Consequences

The uncertainty surrounding the deal has had tangible effects on global financial markets. Oil prices surged previously on fears that fighting could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while global stocks swung sharply on escalation and ceasefire headlines. Since the conflict reignited in late February, the S&P 500 has fallen 7%, while Brent crude surged more than 20% as traders priced in the risk of disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Elevated energy prices contributed to a rise in US headline inflation to 4.20% in May from 3.80% in April. Hopes for a deal helped reverse some losses recently, with the S&P 500 rising 1.75% and Brent crude prices falling to around $89 per barrel.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

At the center of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments normally pass through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a major concern for oil traders and policymakers. Iran's latest demand that Washington adhere strictly to the MOU's explicit terms, combined with its warning that contradictory US statements are eroding trust, has added a new layer of uncertainty to the negotiations. Trump has indicated that additional military action could follow if Tehran fails to reach an agreement, leaving the prospects for a resolution increasingly in doubt.