Prediction markets indicate rising odds that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, will make a public appearance by July 31. Polymarket, a Polygon-based platform, shows a 33% probability for this event, with over $3.3 million wagered on the contract. The likelihood of an appearance is currently placed at 3% for June 30 and peaks at 51% for September 30.

Market Odds on Public Appearance

The prediction market data reflects shifting expectations regarding Khamenei's visibility following his appointment. He has not appeared publicly since succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly injured in the same strikes and has remained hidden since.

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Probabilities

Separately, the platform is tracking bets on a final nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. The market assigns a 5% probability to a deal being signed by July 31, a decrease of 41%. The odds improve to 22% for a deal by August 18.

President Donald Trump has declared it "unacceptable" to impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, escalating his earlier denial that Iran was seeking tolls or charges from vessels using the critical waterway. In a social media post, Trump stated that Iran had informed the United States it was not seeking or receiving tolls, insurance costs, or any other charges from ships passing through the strait. He warned that if this information proved false, negotiations would end immediately. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically vital maritime passages for global energy shipments, and any restrictions or levies are closely monitored by international shipping and financial markets.

Stance on Strait of Hormuz

Earlier reports from Iran's Fars News Agency had indicated that daily limits were being placed on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, determined by prevailing conditions, though those reports lacked specific details on the nature of those conditions or the number of vessels affected. Trump's latest statement goes further, characterizing the imposition of any such fees as outright "unacceptable," directly negating the implication of financial burdens or levies associated with transit through the waterway.

Agricultural Trade and Financial Remarks

On the financial front, Trump reiterated his call for lower interest rates, maintaining his longstanding position on monetary policy. Separately, he indicated that he had made progress in discussions with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, though no further details on the substance of those talks were provided. Regarding Iran, Trump clarified that no U.S. funds have been given or released to Iran, and that any funds under U.S. control would instead be directed toward purchasing agricultural commodities — specifically corn, wheat, and soybeans — from American farmers and ranchers for Iran, which he described as desperately needing food supplies.

Key Developments at a Glance