President Donald Trump told former fixer Michael Cohen he would win a hypothetical election today by 25 points, claiming the economy has never been stronger. This assertion comes as fresh polling places his overall approval at 33%, the lowest point of his presidency.

Speaking during a WABC interview on Thursday, Trump stated, "I think that we're doing really well in the polls, the real polls... If I were running today, I think I'd win by 25 points." He added that the administration is achieving economic numbers "that nobody's ever seen before." This conversation marked their first public exchange in roughly eight years.

Polling Data Shows Declining Support

Public support for the administration has deteriorated significantly, contradicting Trump's claims of electoral dominance. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released on Monday placed Trump's approval at 33%, with 64% disapproving.

Earlier data from an AP-NORC poll revealed that approximately two-thirds of Americans believe the ongoing Iran conflict is not worth fighting. Only 28% approved of Trump's management of the conflict. Republican approval fell to 61%, down from 71% in June.

Economic Impact and Political Stakes

The economic backdrop presents a mixed picture. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, slowing from 2.1% in the first quarter. July consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, while employers cut 23,000 payroll jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%.

U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.10 a gallon recently, up from $3.13 a year earlier. The administration moved to end summer-blend gasoline requirements early to increase supply, though disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens continued price pressure.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Trump's claim of a 25-point victory margin and the 33% overall approval rating highlights a significant disconnect between the President's perception and current public sentiment. While GOP support remains above majority levels at 61%, the 10 percentage point drop since June indicates eroding confidence within the base, coinciding with gasoline prices rising nearly $1 per gallon year-over-year and slowing GDP growth.

Former Allies Revisit Their Bitter Break

The cordial exchange marked a dramatic reversal in the relationship between Trump and Cohen. Cohen spent years as Trump's personal lawyer before becoming a central witness in the New York hush-money case that resulted in Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records. Trump has maintained his innocence.

"You and I have obviously traveled a pretty rocky road together," Cohen told Trump. Trump responded, "They weaponized you like nobody's ever been weaponized," and added, "I respect the fact that you recanted everything you said." It remains unclear whether Cohen has formally recanted his testimony.

A federal judge sentenced Cohen in 2018 to three years after he pleaded guilty to campaign-finance violations, tax evasion and other crimes. He later became one of Trump's fiercest critics and said after the 2024 verdict that he felt "relieved."

Cohen Seeks Pardon As Relationship Thaws

The thaw accelerated this summer. Cohen said in July that the two had "rekindled our relationship because of a shared experience of betrayal." Reuters reported on Thursday that Cohen has submitted a pardon application to the White House.

Political commentator Bill O'Reilly previously warned that the ongoing Iran conflict is damaging Trump's political standing. O'Reilly stated that Trump must "solve the Iran thing" as higher prices resulting from the war are "haunting him." He noted that while a Trump endorsement no longer carries its previous weight, it does not necessarily harm Republican candidates.

President Trump signalled that negotiations with Iran remain a possibility, stating they could happen "maybe at some point," while also addressing trade and deal-related developments. The remarks covered three distinct areas: Iran diplomacy, a deal pending document finalization, and the tariff status with Canada.

Key statements at a glance

Iran and deal developments

On the question of engaging with Iran, Trump did not confirm any active or scheduled negotiations, describing the prospect only as a future possibility. Separately, Trump noted that a deal is subject to the finalization of documents, indicating that at least one agreement remains in a pending or incomplete state, though no further details were provided in the source.

Canada tariff position

Trump updated his stance on trade with Canada, stating that the US may bring some tariffs down to a level where other countries are. He justified this potential reduction by noting that Canada was paying a higher tariff previously. This marks a shift from earlier statements suggesting no tariffs were going into Canada, introducing a conditional future adjustment rather than a static zero-tariff posture.