A reported 14-point agreement between the U.S. and Iran has undercut Benjamin Netanyahu's position on Iran and exposed the limits of his influence with the Trump administration, according to a report published on Thursday. The development comes as Netanyahu announced his re-election bid for the upcoming October elections, though prediction markets and public sentiment suggest a difficult path to retaining power.

Deal Details and Strategic Impact

The agreement includes U.S. commitments to terminate all sanctions on Iran, including oil exports, a minimum $300 billion aid and reconstruction package, and lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports. While Iran reaffirmed it will not build or acquire nuclear weapons, details on material removal are pending further talks. Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz deemed the deal a strategic "catastrophe" that legitimizes the Iranian regime, noting it addresses none of Israel's "core demands" and restricts its operations in Lebanon.

Political Reactions and Warnings

Vice President JD Vance described the deal as a "win-win" for the U.S. and warned Israeli critics, particularly cabinet members, against personally attacking President Donald Trump. Trump has reportedly expressed frustration over Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon and allegedly called him "crazy" during a recent phone call. The political friction follows the October 2023 Hamas attack, which triggered Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip and is set to be followed by the country's first national election since then.

Election Outlook and Market Odds

Netanyahu faces significant skepticism regarding his return to power. Polygon-based Polymarket indicates a 37% chance of Netanyahu becoming Prime Minister again after the October elections. Conversely, Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and current leader of Yashar Party, holds a 39% favorability in the markets. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 61% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run again.

Netanyahu has issued a firm vow that Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons, stating this position holds regardless of whether a deal is reached or not.

Key Declaration

The pledge represents an unequivocal stance, making clear that the prevention of Iranian nuclear armament is a non-negotiable objective under any diplomatic outcome — whether negotiations succeed or fail.