Let Alberta Decide responded to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce on June 24, 2026, asserting that federal policies, not the prospect of independence, pose the real economic risk to the province. The group argued that Alberta's economy has been constrained for more than a decade by federal regulations that have driven away investment and limited resource development. Keith Wilson, K.C., co-lead of Let Alberta Decide, stated that the Chamber's recent release focused on hypothetical fears while ignoring the economic reality caused by Ottawa's actions.

Wilson emphasized that Alberta remains one of Canada's strongest economies despite federal policies affecting energy, infrastructure, and agriculture. He noted that the province's assets, including farmland, oil and gas reserves, and a skilled workforce, remain firmly in place. "Alberta is not a branch office economy. Alberta is a producing economy," Wilson said, highlighting the province's capacity for independent economic success.

The group pointed to significant capital flight as evidence of the current system's failure. Recent economic analysis cited by Let Alberta Decide indicates that more than $1 trillion in investment left Canada between 2015 and 2024. Wilson argued that this exodus occurred due to unpredictable rules imposed by the federal government, rather than discussions surrounding independence. "Investment leaves when governments make the rules unpredictable — and Ottawa has done that to Alberta for more than a decade," Wilson said.

Let Alberta Decide outlined the potential benefits of independence, including authority over resource regulation, taxation, immigration policy, and trade agreements. Wilson rejected the Chamber's comparison to Brexit, stating that Alberta would be able to negotiate directly with its largest market, the United States, without federal interference. The group also criticized the Chamber's survey as non-representative, calling for the release of full methodology and data.

Wilson concluded that Alberta possesses the resources, institutions, and workforce necessary to function as a successful independent country. The group maintains that the greatest threat to the province's economy is the continuation of federal policies that block and politicize key industries.

Alberta's economy is projected to grow faster than the national economy in 2026, driven by a surge in oil prices and persistent population growth, according to the Economic Outlook released by ATB Financial on June 11, 2026. The report forecasts Alberta's real GDP will increase by 2.6 per cent this year, well above the 2.1 per cent projected in December before the Iran war disrupted global markets. By comparison, the national economy is expected to grow by just 0.8 per cent in 2026.

The growth is supported by the energy sector, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price projections to an average of US$84 per barrel. However, energy producers are maintaining capital discipline amid ongoing uncertainty over prices, regulations, and future pipeline capacity. Beyond energy, relative housing affordability and an improving labour market are driving a steady influx of new residents, leading to increased construction and consumer spending.

Key Economic Indicators

Despite the positive outlook, the report cautions that this is not a classic energy boom. Households are navigating a steep cost of living, youth unemployment remains high, and businesses are holding back on hiring as they await clarity on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review scheduled for this summer. Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, described the situation as "a fast car restricted to the slow lane," noting that while momentum is clear, trade conflicts and infrastructure constraints are preventing the province from reaching its full potential.

Long-term Growth Drivers

Economic modeling indicates that major pipeline expansions and carbon capture projects linked to the Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding could add 5.1 per cent to the provincial GDP between 2027 and 2035. Additionally, Alberta's economy is benefiting from diversification into sectors such as petrochemicals, hydrogen, food processing, tech, tourism, critical minerals, aviation, and logistics. While upstream investment remains below peak levels, spending on downstream activities continues to trend higher.

Parsons emphasized that while top-line numbers show resilience, not everyone will feel the benefits equally. Surging fuel and input costs are squeezing family and business budgets, and structural improvements in investment and productivity remain vital for sustained growth. The report underscores the need for ongoing monitoring of geopolitical developments and domestic policy changes to ensure long-term economic stability.