Iran's parliament is weighing a bill that would see the country withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), according to Fars News Agency.

Bill to exit the NPT

The proposed legislation, under consideration by Iran's parliament, targets the NPT, the landmark international agreement designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. The report, attributed to Fars News Agency, indicates that lawmakers are actively deliberating on the measure.

The NPT is a multilateral treaty that forms the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation efforts. A withdrawal by Iran would represent a significant development in international nuclear diplomacy. No further details on the bill's status, timeline, or voting outcome were provided in the source report.

US President Donald Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen assets in exchange for "concrete progress" on Tehran’s nuclear program. This potential policy shift signals a willingness to engage diplomatically, even as prediction market traders raise the probability of a final deal.

A White House official confirmed that Trump remains open to lifting economic restrictions and unfreezing assets contingent upon verifiable steps toward resolving the nuclear standoff. However, the administration insists there will be no agreement unless Tehran first makes tangible concessions on its nuclear program.

Diplomatic stalemate and regional mediation

The diplomatic push comes days after Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, stating that Tehran had "overplayed their hand." U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held indirect talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York last week, with Qatari officials carrying messages between the two sides. A White House official described these discussions as "positive and constructive," noting flexibility from Iran on nuclear issues.

Despite this engagement, significant divisions remain regarding the sequence of actions. Iran is seeking sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and an easing of U.S. pressure before making its biggest concessions. Conversely, the Trump administration demands concrete nuclear progress first. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated that Iran was asking for "everything up front with a promise that they would then talk."

Trump explicitly rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal on Saturday, which offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear negotiations within a week if Washington lifted its naval blockade, removed sanctions on oil sales, and restored a regional ceasefire.

Market reaction and financial implications

Prediction market traders are becoming more optimistic about a resolution. Polymarket now assigns a 15% chance to a final U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, up from 10% on Saturday. The wider market has attracted nearly $18.9 million in trading volume.

However, skepticism persists regarding major nuclear concessions. Polymarket gives just a 6% chance that the U.S. obtains Iran’s enriched uranium by December 31, with the year-end contract attracting about $2.4 million in trading volume.

The financial stakes extend beyond diplomacy into energy markets. Brent crude gained 1.5% Sunday night after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pressure global energy markets. Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) were up about 1% Monday as oil prices remained elevated. A prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could keep crude prices higher, benefiting major oil producers while adding pressure to inflation and the broader economy.

What the numbers show

The divergence between the rising probability of a general deal (15%) and the low probability of obtaining enriched uranium (6%) suggests traders anticipate a partial or phased agreement rather than a comprehensive nuclear disarmament. The simultaneous rise in oil prices and Exxon Mobil shares indicates markets are pricing in continued geopolitical friction despite the diplomatic openings.