Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing the conclusion of negotiations to establish safe shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Monday that the talks are in their final stage.

The primary objective of these discussions is to identify secure corridors within the strait. Baghaei noted that while third-party interference had previously hindered progress, the parties remain optimistic about reaching an agreement in the coming days. The proposed arrangement aims to create a temporary "safe route" that would be registered with the International Maritime Organization.

Geopolitical Tensions and Restrictions

Despite the diplomatic progress, tensions persist regarding navigation rights and fees. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated on Sunday that Tehran plans to announce a new restricted zone in the Gulf and establish a new shipping corridor. Ships entering this zone could face sanctions.

Rezaei emphasized that Iran intends to keep the strait open only if the United States ends attacks and threats against Tehran. This stance contrasts with earlier reports from the New York Post indicating that Oman quietly rejected Iran’s proposal to jointly charge service fees on commercial ships. Muscat reportedly declined the fee-sharing deal to avoid escalating tensions with the US, particularly after President Donald Trump threatened military action against Oman if it supported Iranian tolls.

Shipping Data vs Official Claims

Recent shipping data presents a stark contrast to official statements from US leadership. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted earlier this month that the Strait could lose its strategic importance within two years as new land-based pipelines reduce reliance on the route. He characterized Iran's actions as an attempt to use the strait as an energy choke point.

However, commercial traffic through the waterway remains severely constrained. Data from last week revealed a 50% drop in maritime traffic, with only five confirmed crossings. This decline contradicts Trump’s claim that the US maintains "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between political rhetoric and operational reality is evident in the traffic data. While US officials assert dominance and predict diminished strategic value for the strait, the 50% drop in traffic indicates significant disruption to global energy flows. The low volume of confirmed crossings (five) suggests that geopolitical friction is materially impacting commercial operations, regardless of stated intentions by either side.

Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell 50% in a single day, while the 10-day moving average for commodity vessels dropped to 10, the lowest level since May.

Scale of the decline

The sharp single-day reduction coincides with a broader slowdown in traffic volumes. According to data from Kpler, the 10-day moving average for commodity vessel crossings stands at 10 per day. This figure represents the lowest daily average recorded for the strait since May.

Context and significance

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global maritime trade, particularly for energy shipments connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. The convergence of a sudden 50% daily drop and a multi-day low in the moving average underscores heightened sensitivity in the region's shipping activity. No specific cause for the disruption was disclosed in the available data.