Iran is reportedly contemplating an assault on U.S. military targets in Europe should the ongoing conflict with the Trump administration escalate. Iranian forces have been assessing the feasibility of striking US assets in south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, with the Bezmer air base recently greenlit for use by U.S. refuelling aircraft identified as a potential target. This development signals a significant widening of the conflict's scope, moving beyond the Middle East to direct Western infrastructure.

Specific Targets and Strategic Posture

Insiders cited in a Financial Times report pointed to Cyprus as another potential target for retaliation if the U.S. resumes its offensive, noting that a British air base there was hit by a drone in March. Sources disclosed that Iranian forces have separately contemplated attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if tensions escalate further. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military commanders have warned that Tehran could expand attacks beyond U.S. military assets and infrastructure in the Middle East to targets farther afield in a full-scale conflict.

The regime is devising a plan to widen the conflict if President Donald Trump acts on previous threats to attack Iranian infrastructure. One insider underscored that Iran would impose "no limits" on its response to US aggression, even extending its defense to Europe.

NATO Response and Regional Escalation

NATO spokesperson told CNN that it is prepared to "address any threat" and "will always do what is necessary to defend all allies." Notably, in March, NATO defenses intercepted four suspected Iranian ballistic missiles headed toward Turkey, though Iran denied launching them. Cyprus also faced drone attacks during the same month.

This development comes in the wake of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) severing all trade and financial transactions with Iran following a reported missile strike. Two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran towards the UAE's territorial waters, causing no damage or casualties but marking an unwelcome return of the conflict to the Gulf economy's shores after more than three months. Previous weeks had seen a series of Iranian drone and missile attacks on the UAE, which escalated local tensions and impacted the country's tourism and aviation industry.

Meanwhile, Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. has no ongoing or scheduled talks with Iran. He said the naval blockade remains in place while the Strait of Hormuz is "open and operating."

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.85% to $85.66/bbl on Wednesday, while Brent crude gained 0.83% to $91.71/bbl. The price movement coincided with public criticism from investor Ross Gerber, who argued that escalating energy costs and borrowing rates are intensifying political pressure on the Trump administration regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Political Criticism Amid Rising Costs

Gerber posted on X on Tuesday, stating that "oil prices and rates continue to rise" and asserting that Iran recognizes Trump has "no support" for the war leading into the election. He characterized the market reaction negatively, claiming stocks did not "want any part of trumps war." Gerber further predicted that the administration could not secure a deal to win the war during Trump's presidency.

The investor also referenced Trump's medical exemption from the Vietnam War draft due to bone spurs, stating that a "guy with bone spurs" had "no business starting a war."

Energy Market Data

Volatility in oil markets persisted into the pre-market session on Wednesday. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) rose 1.11% to $132.13. Retail fuel costs remained elevated, with the national average gasoline price surging to $4.0860/gallon, according to American Automobile Association data. Prices in California, Washington, and Hawaii averaged above $5/gallon.

Geopolitical Tensions

Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, remained high. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaee, mocked Trump’s claim of control over the waterway, citing the geographic distance from Washington DC.

Conversely, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reaffirmed that oil flows were moving through the strait with US military escorting ships. Wright stated that this coordination helped move 30 vessels and claimed flows had surpassed pre-war levels.