Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump approval flat at 42%

2 min read     Updated on 15 Jul 2026, 04:51 AM
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Stagwell released the July Harvard CAPS/Harris poll results, indicating President Donald Trump's approval rating remains at 42%. Inflation and the economy persist as the top concerns for voters, with 77% believing inflation is above 3 percent. The survey also highlights strong support for free enterprise over socialism and significant concerns regarding the social dangers of artificial intelligence.

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Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and The Harris Poll and HarrisX. The survey, conducted online among 1,776 registered voters on July 11-12, 2026, indicates that President Donald Trump's approval rating remains flat at 42%. Voters continue to prioritize the economy and inflation, while expressing distinct preferences on socialism, healthcare, and artificial intelligence development.

President Trump's job approval is highest on immigration at 49% and fighting crime at 47%. Conversely, his lowest approval ratings are on handling inflation at 35% and managing the Iran conflict at 38%. The poll reveals that inflation and the economy remain the top concerns for voters, though the salience of inflation ticked down by 4 points from May 2026. A majority of 77% of voters believe inflation is above 3 percent a year, while 58% believe the economy is shrinking.

Economic and Policy Sentiments

The survey highlights a complex economic landscape where 50% of voters believe the economy is better today than it was when Biden was president. Additionally, 50% of voters believe price increases caused by tensions with Iran will be short-term, an 8-point improvement from May. Regarding policy, 11 out of 13 key Trump policy positions continue to see majority support. The most popular policies include lowering prescription drug prices (86% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (79%), and requiring proof of citizenship to vote (70%).

Policy Area Support Level
Lowering prescription drug prices 86%
Deporting illegal immigrants who committed crimes 79%
Requiring proof of citizenship to vote 70%
Placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries 39%
Eliminating mail-in voting 49%
Deporting all illegal immigrants 55%

Socialism and Healthcare Views

A significant majority of 78% of voters say the country is better off with free enterprise instead of socialism. However, the poll identifies misconceptions about socialism, with majorities believing that under socialism, people can own homes (60%), businesses (57%), and practice freedom of religion and speech rights (59%). In healthcare, 69% of voters support Medicare for All, despite 72% saying they are personally happy with their current coverage.

Artificial Intelligence Concerns

Voters express apprehension regarding the rapid development of artificial intelligence. While 57% of voters say they personally use AI, 67% say the U.S. should slow down the rush on AI. Furthermore, 82% of voters say AI has social dangers, citing job loss (41%) and power usage (30%) as top concerns. A plurality of 53% of voters say they are more likely to support a candidate who favors a slowdown in AI development.

Geopolitical and National Sentiment

On the international stage, 73% of voters support Israel over Hamas, and 68% say Iran should not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, 74% of voters are proud to be an American today, and 75% believe they are living or will achieve the American Dream. The Congressional horserace remains tied at 50-50 among general voters, with Democrats holding a 2-point lead among likely midterm voters.

How might the discrepancy between voter support for specific Trump policies and his low approval on inflation impact the administration's legislative priorities?

Could the 67% voter preference to slow AI development influence upcoming regulatory bills or campaign platforms in the 2026 midterms?

What are the potential market implications if the 58% of voters who believe the economy is shrinking adjust their spending habits accordingly?

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Trump-Backed Russia Sanctions Bill Includes Presidential Waiver and Import Exceptions

2 min read     Updated on 15 Jul 2026, 02:50 AM
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Trump-backed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 proposes at least 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy, targeting nations like China, India, and Brazil. The bill includes a presidential waiver clause if sanctions are deemed against U.S. national interest, and exemptions for countries importing less than 15% of Russia's natural gas exports who are taking steps to reduce those imports. Senators Shaheen, Blumenthal, and Wicker confirmed an agreement with the White House to advance the legislation.

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President Donald Trump is backing the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, legislation designed to impose tariffs of at least 500% on countries buying Russian energy. According to a report by CNN, the White House confirmed its support for the measure. The Wall Street Journal has also reported that the bill would specifically target China and India as major buyers of Russian oil. Notably, the bill also grants Trump the authority to waive sanctions if deemed in U.S. national interest, and includes exceptions for countries importing less than 15% of Russia's natural gas exports and taking meaningful steps to reduce those imports.

The proposed legislation would raise duties to at least 500% on Russian imports and on goods from countries that knowingly engage in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products. Congress stated that the measure aims to exact a heavy price on those who buy Russian oil and natural gas, thereby fueling the Putin war machine.

Senators Push Sanctions Measure

The push for the bill follows an announcement from Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who confirmed they had reached an agreement with the Trump administration to move the updated sanctions legislation forward. Trump had previously greenlit Graham's 500% tariff plan, which specifically targets Russian oil buyers such as China, India, and Brazil.

Shaheen urged Congress to pass the measure following Graham's sudden death, framing the legislation as a tribute to his work on Ukraine. "There can be no more fitting memorial to Lindsey, his legacy, or the causes he fought for, than to pass this legislation and realize his long-held dream of an independent and secure Ukraine," she said in a statement.

Key Provisions of the Bill

The following table outlines the core elements of the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025:

Provision: Details
Tariff Rate: At least 500%
Target Goods: Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products
Sanction Triggers: Refusal to negotiate peace, violation of deal, new invasion, subversion of government
Target Nations: Countries buying Russian energy (e.g., China, India, Brazil)
Presidential Waiver: Trump granted authority to waive sanctions if deemed in U.S. national interest
Import Exception: Countries importing less than 15% of Russia's natural gas exports and taking meaningful steps to reduce those imports

Succession and Next Steps

Graham had returned from Kyiv shortly before his death and stated that the White House deal meant the bill was likely to advance. "We've reached an agreement with the White House on a version of the Russian sanctions bill that they will support. It means it's going to become law," Graham had said. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, as his temporary replacement in the Senate. A special GOP primary will be held to determine the party's nominee for the full term.

How will China and India likely respond to these tariffs, and could it lead to retaliatory trade measures against the U.S.?

What criteria will the Trump administration use to determine if waiving sanctions is in the national interest, and how frequently might this authority be exercised?

Will the 15% import exception for natural gas create loopholes that allow nations to continue supporting the Russian energy economy?

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