Canadian Minister LeBlanc confirmed the government's intention to announce retaliatory tariffs on Tuesday. The statement was made during an interview with CNBC.

Trade Policy Update

When asked specifically if the government would unveil these measures on Tuesday, LeBlanc stated that he believes it is the government's intention to do so. The comments signal a planned escalation in trade policy, though specific details regarding the sectors or values of the tariffs were not disclosed in the interview.

Canadian consumer debt reached a record $2.64 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, rising 4.6% year-over-year to $116.7 billion, according to TransUnion’s Credit Industry Insights Report. While credit limits expanded alongside borrowing, financial stress intensified among specific segments, with super prime and subprime borrowers driving the fastest balance growth.

National Debt and Delinquency Trends

Total outstanding balances grew faster than the number of Canadians with access to credit, which expanded modestly by 1.1% YoY to 32.5 million. This divergence indicates existing borrowers are carrying larger balances than a year earlier.

Non-mortgage debt owed an average of $28,118 per consumer in Q2 2026, up 7.6% from a year earlier. Balances increased across all major lending categories, led by auto loans (7.9%), lines of credit (7.4%), personal loans (7.1%), and credit cards (5.1%).

Despite stable national averages, serious delinquency metrics showed deterioration. The share of consumers 90+ days past due (DPD) rose to 1.81% in Q2 2026 from 1.77% in Q2 2025. Conversely, the share of consumers 30+ DPD declined to 4.27%, the lowest level observed over the past two years.

Mortgage Market Dynamics

Canada’s mortgage market remained broadly stable, but new mortgage origination growth slowed to 7.8% YoY, down from double-digit growth in recent quarters. Total mortgage balances rose 3.9% YoY to $1.93 trillion, while the number of mortgage accounts declined slightly by 0.2%.

The average outstanding mortgage balance increased 4.2% YoY to $293,270, driven by larger balances on existing mortgages. In contrast, the average balance on newly issued mortgages fell 2.4% YoY to $354,683, reflecting affordability pressures.

Mortgage delinquencies remained low overall, with 99.7% of holders making payments on time. However, serious mortgage delinquency (60+ days past due) edged higher:

• Consumer-level: rose 3 bps to 0.29%
• Account-level: rose 3 bps to 0.30%
• Balance-level: rose 6 bps to 0.31%

The larger increase in balance-level delinquency suggests financial stress is concentrating among borrowers with larger mortgage balances.

Regional Divergence in Stress

Financial stress varied significantly by province. Ontario recorded the largest year-over-year increase in account-level mortgage delinquency, rising 6 basis points (bps) to 0.32%. At the balance level, Ontario’s delinquency rose 10 bps to 0.41%.

British Columbia followed with a 4 bps increase in account-level delinquency and a 7 bps rise in balance-level delinquency. By contrast, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador reported stable or improving results.

Consumer insolvency rates also rose, reaching 1.10% in Q2 2026 from 0.94% in Q2 2024, the highest level in two years. This increase was primarily driven by non-mortgage holders, whose filing rates moved above pre-pandemic levels, while mortgage holder rates remained below pre-2020 levels.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a widening divide across risk tiers. Super prime balances grew 6.5% YoY to $1.74 trillion, while subprime balances increased 5.9% YoY to $62.0 billion. Prime tier balances remained flat at $273.1 billion. This polarization suggests that while financially strong households expanded borrowing, higher-risk households may be relying more heavily on credit to manage ongoing pressures, even as average non-mortgage balances for subprime consumers declined slightly by 0.2%.

Demographic and Risk Tier Breakdowns