The US labor market cooled significantly in June as private employers added 49,000 jobs, falling short of the 110,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, below the 4.3% consensus, while the participation rate fell to 61.5% compared to the prior reading of 61.8%, indicating a withdrawal from the labor force. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims held steady at 215,000, matching the prior reading and coming in below the 218,000 estimate. However, continuing jobless claims rose to 1,814K, compared to the estimate of 1,810K, pointing to a potential increase in the duration of unemployment.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, matching expectations, and were up 3.5% from a year earlier. Economists had anticipated annual wage growth to quicken from 3.4% to 3.5%, a target that was met. The wage data suggests continued income growth for workers even as job creation moderates.

Revisions to previous months painted a weaker picture of the labor market. The April nonfarm payrolls gain was revised lower to 148,000 from the previously reported 179,000, while May payroll growth was cut to 129,000 from 172,000. Combined, these revisions reduced employment gains for the two months by 74,000 jobs.

The employment report is the first key data release since the Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting. At that meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh's committee held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% but shifted its projections sharply hawkish. The median policymaker now anticipates rates ending 2026 higher than current levels, with nine of eighteen officials penciling in at least one hike.

Key Labor Market Data

The tables below summarize the key metrics from the June employment report against estimates and prior readings.

The divergence between slowing job growth, a falling participation rate, rising continuing claims, and the Fed's hawkish stance highlights the central bank's focus on inflation risks over labor market cooling.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly emphasized a gradualist approach to monetary policy, stating she does not want to react quickly when the world is changing quickly. She expressed a preference for taking things slowly during a recent public appearance. Daly observed exceedingly strong investment growth in the U.S., noting no signs of a lack of economic resiliency despite inflation running above target. She characterized this resilience as a positive indicator for the U.S. economy.

Daly stated that the labor market has stabilized, providing a steady foundation for economic activity. Addressing price pressures, she attributed the rise in inflation to tariffs and oil price shocks. However, she expressed optimism that relief may be on the horizon as oil prices have declined.

Regarding the policy stance, Daly described U.S. monetary policy as slightly restrictive. She indicated that this positioning is intended to assist in reducing inflation over time. Her comments suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook on the economy's ability to withstand current monetary tightening measures.

The remarks underscore the Federal Reserve's ongoing assessment of the balance between sustaining economic growth and managing inflationary pressures. Daly's focus on investment strength and labor market stability points to an economy that remains robust even as central bank officials work to return inflation to target levels.