The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge climbed to a three-year high in May, while Micron Technology Inc. delivered a significant earnings beat and crude oil prices collapsed. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in April. This persistent price pressure has bolstered investor bets on future interest rate increases, with markets pricing a near-certain hike by October 2026.
Inflation and Consumer Spending
The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-over-year in May, marking the highest annual rate since April 2023. Despite these inflationary headwinds, consumer spending remained robust. Personal spending climbed 0.7% month-over-month, or $156.1 billion, beating estimates of 0.6%. Personal income also rose 0.7%, its strongest gain since July 2025. Adjusted for inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.3% in May after a flat reading in April.
| Metric |
Actual |
Previous |
Estimate |
| Personal Spending (MoM) May |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
| Core PCE Price Index (MoM) May |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
| Core PCE Price Index (YoY) May |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.4% |
| Headline PCE (YoY) May |
4.1% |
3.8% |
4.1% |
Q1 GDP Revision
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, revised up from the second estimate of 1.6%. This marked a sharp acceleration from the 0.5% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. The upgrade was driven largely by a downward revision to imports. Final first-quarter real consumer spending was cut to 0.5%, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers were revised down to 1.7%.
| Metric |
Actual |
Previous |
Estimate |
| GDP (Annualized) Q1 |
2.1% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
| Real Consumer Spending Q1 |
0.5% |
- |
- |
| Real Final Sales Q1 |
1.7% |
- |
- |
Market Movers: Oil and Tech
West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded below $70 a barrel as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced the war-risk premium. Oil is down more than 20% on the month, on pace for its worst monthly performance since March 2020. Persian Gulf exports recovered to roughly 75% of prewar levels.
In equity markets, Microsoft Corp. is down about 18% on the month, its worst June since 2000, as investors dumped the stock over AI capex fears. Oracle Corp. has fared even worse, plunging 30% in June and erasing more than $300 billion in market value after warning of $70 billion in fiscal 2027 capex. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is heading for its worst month since inception.
Micron's Memorable Beat
Micron Technology Inc. posted fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.5 billion, up 346% on the year. Gross margin hit 84.6%. Earnings per share came in at $24.67 versus $1.68 a year ago, nearly a 15-fold increase. Shares jumped 15% on Thursday as the stock saw multiple price-target hikes. Apple Inc. raised prices across its product line this week to offset surging memory costs.
Sentiment and Rates
The University of Michigan's final June Consumer Sentiment rose 9% to 48.9, yet sentiment is still 19% below a year ago. Long-run inflation expectations fell back from 3.9% to 3.4%. The Treasury market saw the policy-sensitive 2-year yield fall about 5 basis points to 4.10%.