Restrictions on new solar and wind could cost US $121.2bn
A CEBA study reveals that restricting new solar and wind resources could increase U.S. energy costs by $121.2 billion between 2027 and 2033. Households may bear $81.2 billion of this increase, while commercial and industrial customers could face $40 billion in extra costs. Texas faces the highest projected rise, with ERCOT electricity costs potentially increasing by 22.2%.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Restricting new solar and wind resources could cost the United States an additional $121.2 billion in electricity and natural gas expenses from 2027 through 2033, according to a new analysis by the Corporate Energy Buyers Association (CEBA). The study, titled "The Cost of Constraining New Solar and Wind," warns that limitations on these resources will lead to higher energy bills for households and businesses, with Texas facing the most significant financial impact. The analysis compares baseline and high-load-growth scenarios to determine the economic implications of preventing solar and wind from competing against other generation sources.
Projected Cost Increases
The financial burden of these constraints is expected to fall heavily on consumers. Households across the U.S. could see an additional $81.2 billion, or $11.6 billion annually, in electricity and natural gas costs over the modeled seven-year period. Commercial and industrial customers are projected to pay an extra $40 billion, or $5.7 billion annually, in electricity costs alone during the same timeframe.
| Customer Segment | Additional Cost (Total) | Additional Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Households | $81.2 billion | $11.6 billion |
| Commercial and Industrial | $40 billion | $5.7 billion |
| Total | $121.2 billion | $17.3 billion |
Impact on Electricity Prices
The study indicates that electricity prices are already rising faster than general inflation, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimating annual electricity inflation at about 5%. If new solar and wind resources are constrained, the average U.S. electricity price between 2027 and 2033 could increase by up to 6.1%, reaching $39.7 per megawatt-hour compared to $37.4 per megawatt-hour. CEBA notes this is equivalent to adding an entire extra year of inflation to electricity prices.
Regional Impact on Texas
Texas is identified as the region most vulnerable to these cost increases. Households served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) could see average electricity costs rise by 22.2% from 2027 through 2033. Economywide, residential and commercial customers in ERCOT may incur $21 billion in additional electricity costs over the seven-year period, averaging $3 billion annually.
Reliability and Policy Recommendations
While all modeled scenarios included new natural gas generation, constraining solar and wind would force greater reliance on natural gas. This shift exposes consumers to fuel price volatility and heightens grid reliability risks during periods of peak energy use. CEBA CEO Rich Powell emphasized the need for all energy options to compete on a level playing field to maintain economic competitiveness. Nidhi Thakar, CEBA's Senior Vice President for Policy, advocated for technology-neutral permitting reforms to remove deployment barriers and ensure reliable, affordable power.
How might these projected cost increases influence consumer advocacy and political pressure regarding energy policy ahead of the 2027 timeframe?
What specific permitting reforms is CEBA targeting to remove deployment barriers for renewable energy projects?
How will the projected 22.2% cost increase in Texas impact the competitiveness of local industries compared to other regions?

































