Short interest surges on Joby and Archer Aviation stocks
Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation stocks have plummeted, driving short interest to 18.6% and 15.4% respectively. Shareholder dilution has surged, with outstanding shares more than quadrupling for Archer and rising significantly for Joby since 2021. Analysts have slashed price targets for both firms as they anticipate continued losses ahead of commercial aircraft launches.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Investors are increasingly bearish on Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation as the companies approach the commercialization phase of their electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Both stocks have tumbled to their lowest levels in months, with Archer Aviation falling 66% from its 2025 peak to $4.87 and Joby Aviation dropping to $8.83 from a peak of $20 last year. This decline has benefited short sellers, with data showing short interest of 123.3 million shares, or 18.6% of outstanding shares, for Archer Aviation. Joby Aviation faces a short interest of 15.4%, representing over 100.7 million shares shorted.
The negative sentiment stems from concerns regarding significant shareholder dilution and the distance to profitability. Both companies have spent billions of dollars in recent years, leading to a substantial increase in outstanding shares. Joby Aviation’s share count rose from 604 million in 2021 to 980 million today, while Archer Aviation’s increased from 157 million to 757 million over the same period. Financing agreements, such as Archer Aviation’s deal with Stellantis to fund labor costs in exchange for newly issued shares, suggest dilution will continue.
Financial Performance and Analyst Outlook
Investors are also wary of the future profitability model and margins for the eVTOL sector. Archer Aviation expects a second-quarter loss of $170 million, while Joby Aviation reported a first-quarter loss of $102 million. These losses have prompted analysts to reduce their outlooks. Canaccord Genuity slashed its price target for Joby Aviation to $11.5 from $15.5, with Morgan Stanley and Needham also cutting estimates. The consensus target for Joby stands at $11, slightly above the current trading price of $8.83. Similarly, Canaccord Genuity, Needham, and Goldman Sachs have reduced their estimates for Archer Aviation.
Key Metrics for Joby and Archer Aviation
| Metric | Joby Aviation | Archer Aviation |
|---|---|---|
| Current Stock Price | $8.83 | $4.87 |
| Short Interest | 100.7 million shares (15.4%) | 123.3 million shares (18.6%) |
| Outstanding Shares (2021) | 604 million | 157 million |
| Outstanding Shares (Current) | 980 million | 757 million |
| Recent Quarterly Loss | $102 million (Q1) | $170 million (Q2 expected) |
Looking ahead, market attention will focus on upcoming regulatory approvals from the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), potential capital raising events, and the progress toward commercialization. Both companies expect to launch their aircraft later this year, with ramping up anticipated in the following years.
What specific criteria must Joby and Archer meet to secure FAA certification by the end of this year?
How will continued shareholder dilution impact the long-term valuation of these companies?
What additional capital raising measures might be necessary to sustain operations until profitability?
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