Options price $4.94 billion swing for ConocoPhillips ahead of earnings
Options data indicates significant volatility expectations for ConocoPhillips, Howmet Aerospace, Cloudflare, and Datadog as they report Q2 2026 results. Implied moves range from 3.47% to 13.31%, with total market value at stake exceeding $39 billion across the four companies.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Options markets are pricing in substantial volatility for four major companies set to report second quarter of 2026 earnings, with billions of dollars in market value at stake across energy, aerospace, and technology sectors. ConocoPhillips leads the list by market capitalization, with options implying a 3.47% move that translates to $4.94 billion in potential value fluctuation. Meanwhile, high-momentum software names Cloudflare and Datadog face wider expected swings, reflecting investor sensitivity to growth metrics and guidance in these sectors.
The earnings releases are scheduled for Thursday, with ConocoPhillips and Howmet Aerospace Inc. reporting before the opening bell, while Cloudflare, Inc. will report after the closing bell. Datadog, Inc. also reports before the open. According to Benzinga Pro data, these moves represent the consensus expectations for post-print reactions, offering retail investors a gauge for risk sizing around the releases and subsequent guidance calls.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | Implied Move | Value at Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips | COP | $142B | 3.47% | $4.94B |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc. | HWM | $116B | 6.74% | $7.79B |
| Cloudflare, Inc. | NET | $108B | 11.78% | $12.7B |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $104B | 13.31% | $13.9B |
ConocoPhillips, a U.S.-based independent exploration and production firm, is expected to report earnings per share of $2.88 on revenue of $18.78 billion, compared with $1.42 per share on $14.74 billion a year ago. The stock carries a Buy consensus rating and trades below the 180-day average analyst price forecast. In July, Susquehanna reiterated its Positive rating and raised its price forecast, while UBS and Truist Securities reiterated their ratings but cut their forecasts. Shares are up 22.0% year-to-date in 2026.
Howmet Aerospace Inc., which sells engineered solutions into aerospace and transportation markets, faces a larger implied move of 6.74%. Consensus estimates call for $1.24 in earnings per share on $2.43 billion in revenue, up from 91 cents on $2.05 billion in the prior-year quarter. This implies $7.79 billion in market value at stake. RBC Capital, TD Cowen, and Jefferies raised their price forecasts in July. The stock is up 36.1% year-to-date and within 2.1% of its 52-week high of $295.28.
In the technology sector, Cloudflare, Inc. reports after the close with an implied move of 11.78%, putting $12.7 billion at stake. Analysts model 21 cents in earnings per share on $666.17 million in revenue, versus 21 cents on $512.32 million a year ago. Oppenheimer, Truist Securities, and Citizens raised their price forecasts in July. Shares are up 53.7% year-to-date.
Datadog, Inc. shows the widest implied swing at 13.31%, with $13.9 billion in market value at stake. Analysts expect 49 cents in earnings per share on $1.08 billion in revenue, compared with 46 cents on $826.76 million in the prior-year quarter. Canaccord Genuity, Rosenblatt, and Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price forecasts in August. Datadog shares have surged 115.4% year-to-date, trading 73.6% above the 200-day moving average since the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day in May.
What the Numbers Show
The disparity in implied moves highlights sector-specific risk profiles. While ConocoPhillips commands the largest absolute dollar value at stake due to its $142 billion market cap, its percentage move is the smallest among the four. Conversely, Datadog’s 13.31% implied move suggests higher uncertainty or sensitivity to growth guidance, despite a smaller market cap. All four stocks trade near or above key technical levels, including 52-week highs or significant moving averages, indicating strong momentum heading into the earnings period.
How might the divergence in implied volatility between mature energy stocks like ConocoPhillips and high-growth tech names like Datadog influence sector rotation strategies in the weeks following these earnings releases?
Given Datadog's stock is trading significantly above its 200-day moving average, what specific guidance metrics would need to be missed to trigger a mean-reversion correction despite the positive analyst forecast revisions?
With Howmet Aerospace nearing its 52-week high, how could broader macroeconomic indicators regarding commercial aviation demand impact its ability to sustain the 36% year-to-date momentum post-earnings?

































