Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) has established itself as the definitive long-term winner among S&P 500 stocks, claiming the top spot for 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year total returns. Despite this dominance in multi-decade performance metrics, the chipmaker ranks fifth in the five-year category, where specialized industrial and memory storage firms have delivered superior gains.

Data shared by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, highlights a divergence in recent performance versus historical dominance. While Nvidia’s market capitalization has grown to become one of the largest globally, its five-year total return of +1,019% was surpassed by four other companies.

Top Performing Stocks Past Five Years

Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX), an HVAC and plumbing company, led the pack with a total return of +2,274%. The top five performers over this specific period were:

1. Comfort Systems USA: +2,274%
2. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU): +1,305%
3. Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX): +1,151%
4. Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ: LITE): +1,078%
5. Nvidia Corp: +1,019%

Long-Term Dominance

When the timeframe extends beyond five years, Nvidia’s performance separates significantly from its peers. The company posted a +14,468% return over the past decade, more than double that of second-place Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) at +7,543%.

Over 15 years, Nvidia’s return reached +76,248%, far exceeding Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) at +19,414% and Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) at +17,545%. In the 20-year window, Nvidia delivered +63,261%, leading Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) which returned +27,380%.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a concentration of high-growth winners in the technology and infrastructure sectors, but with significant rotation across timeframes. Only four stocks ranked within the top 20 across all four measured periods (five, 10, 15, and 20 years). Nvidia is the only company to rank first in the three longest periods while dropping to fifth in the shortest. Conversely, Comfort Systems USA appeared in the top five for both the five-year and 20-year periods, demonstrating sustained outperformance despite sector differences from the tech-heavy leaders.

Among the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap stocks, only Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) made any list, ranking seventh in 20-year returns. Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet did not appear in the top 20 for any of the measured periods. This suggests that while large-cap tech giants drive market indices, their absolute total returns over multi-year horizons have been outpaced by smaller-cap specialists in semiconductors, industrial services, and data storage.

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) has confirmed a $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy, a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp, to secure exclusive AI compute infrastructure at the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio. The deal establishes Nvidia as the sole AI compute provider at the site, with OpenAI designated as the customer for the full 8 IT-GW of planned capacity.

The investment marks a strategic shift from earlier reports of a potential $3 billion stake tied to an IPO. Nvidia is providing the full $1.5 billion upfront to support SB Energy’s growth and community commitments, rather than linking the remainder to a public listing. The partnership secures land, power, and shell (LPS) capacity for Nvidia’s DSX AI factory platform.

Deal Structure and Capacity

SB Energy will build, own, and operate the data center under a 20-year lease to OpenAI. The initial deployment supports 4.25 IT-GW of AI factory capacity, with Nvidia holding an option to extend the opportunity to cover the remaining 3.75 IT-GW. The campus is being developed on private and federal land, including the decommissioned Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, with capacity expected to come online in phases beginning in 2028.

Revised Financing Structure

Separately, Nvidia and OpenAI are nearing a financing agreement for the Ohio campus that would reduce Nvidia’s initial financial guarantee. According to reports, the revised structure would cut Nvidia’s potential guarantee from $250 billion to less than $120 billion, with Nvidia initially backing only about half of the planned buildout.

The companies reworked the structure after investors raised concerns about Nvidia using its balance sheet to support infrastructure spending that ultimately drives demand for its chips. This adjustment aims to limit initial exposure while pursuing a computing opportunity estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars through 2030.

Revenue Opportunity and Long-Term Outlook

OpenAI has committed to substantial Nvidia infrastructure deployments through 2030, representing about 12 gigawatts of Nvidia computing capacity. That could increase to roughly 16 gigawatts if Nvidia exercises its option for additional PORTS-Pike capacity. At that scale, Nvidia estimates the OpenAI opportunity could represent about $600 billion of computing systems through 2030.

Nvidia expects the long-lived site to support repeated hardware upgrades. The company estimates that each generation of systems deployed at PORTS-Pike could involve about 1.5 million Nvidia GPUs and represent roughly $150 billion to $200 billion of Nvidia revenue. CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI is becoming infrastructure, making land, power, and shell vital in the age of AI.

Community and Infrastructure Impact

The project aims to reindustrialize Southern Ohio, creating tens of thousands of jobs. SB Energy and SoftBank will build at least 10 GW of new energy generation and invest $4.2 billion in regional grid infrastructure through a partnership with AEP Ohio. OpenAI has agreed to contribute an incremental $40 million to SB Energy’s original $40 million community benefits fund, totaling $80 million for local priorities such as affordable energy and workforce development.

What the Numbers Show

The reduction of Nvidia’s financial guarantee from $250 billion to under $120 billion signals a recalibration of risk management amidst investor scrutiny over balance sheet exposure. While the upfront $1.5 billion investment secures immediate LPS capacity, the revised guarantee structure suggests a more conservative approach to funding the broader $600 billion revenue opportunity through 2030. This balances the aggressive pursuit of infrastructure dominance with financial prudence regarding long-term capital commitments.

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan served as financial advisors for SB Energy, while Morgan Stanley advised Nvidia. Nvidia shares rose 0.40% to $226.04 on Monday.