The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered to a fresh record high above 52,700 this week, capping a holiday-shortened session with gains as investors rotated out of AI capital expenditure names and into blue-chip industrials. The rally was driven by a sharply weaker-than-expected June jobs report, which pushed investors to unwind bets that the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates in the near term. Conversely, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lagged, finishing down 1.9% at 29,287, dragged lower by a brutal selloff in semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 hovered 0.3% lower at 7,466.91, weighed by its heavy technology component.

Labor Market Data and Fed Outlook

The June nonfarm payrolls print landed at just 57,000, roughly half the 113,000 consensus, while April and May figures were revised lower by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, but only because the labor-force participation rate slid to 61.5%, a low since March 2021. The soft data mattered because markets had been bracing for a possible Fed hike, not a cut, with inflation running at 4.2%. Odds of a July rate hike collapsed to roughly 20%, and traders now fully price the next hike only by December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added to the dovish tone at the ECB Forum in Sintra, noting that inflation expectations had eased since his swearing-in, signaling little urgency to tighten further despite warning that inflation above 2% would not be tolerated.

Sector Performance and Rotation

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) was the worst-performing sector, down 2.6%, with semiconductors at the epicenter. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) slumped over 5% for the second straight week. The other side of the ledger was led by havens and cyclicals. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLV) topped the sector board, up 2.2%, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLP) rose 1.7%. Gold’s bounce sent the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) up 4.3%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE: DIA) has risen 8.77% year-to-date, slightly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY).

Major Indices Performance

The following table summarises the performance of major U.S. indices:

Top Movers and Earnings

The Russell 1000’s biggest losers were an all-semiconductor roll call. Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI) tumbled 15.8%. Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) fell 14.1% and FormFactor Inc. (NASDAQ: FORM) lost 13.4%. Vicor Corp. (NASDAQ: VICR) and SiTime Corp. (NASDAQ: SITM) both slid 12.6%. The winners told a defense-and-reflation story. AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) led the Russell 1000, up 11.6%, extending gains after a fiscal Q4 where revenue doubled to $642 million and backlog jumped 65%. Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) jumped 9.2% after delivering 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, raising full-year 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000. Nike Inc. (NASDAQ: NKE) rallied over 7% for the week after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $10.97 billion and an EPS beat inflated by a $986 million IEEPA tariff refund.

Commodities and Global Markets

In energy, crude eased further as the demand narrative softened. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.8% to around $68.06 a barrel, while Brent fell 0.7% to about $71.06. Gold climbed 2.3% to about $4,124 an ounce and silver jumped 3.2% to roughly $61. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was up 2.1% to $61,000.

Rivian Automotive Inc shares surged more than 13% on Thursday after the company reported second-quarter production and delivery figures that exceeded analyst expectations and raised its full-year delivery forecast. The company produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 vehicles during the quarter ending June 30, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of around 11,000 deliveries. The performance was driven by strong demand for its electric delivery vans, R1T pickup, and R1S SUV, alongside the beginning of customer deliveries for its midsize R2 SUV.

Rivian increased its 2026 delivery forecast to 65,000–70,000 vehicles, up from its previous guidance of 62,000–67,000 units. Production continues to ramp at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, which has an annual capacity of approximately 160,000 vehicles. The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results on July 30.

The rally in Rivian stock significantly boosted the GraniteShares 2x Long RIVN Daily ETF (NASDAQ: RVNL), which surged over 20% by seeking to deliver 200% of the daily performance of Rivian shares. This contrasted with diversified electric vehicle ETFs, which posted modest gains or declines due to broader exposure across the sector. For instance, the KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility ETF (NYSE: KARS) moved less than 1%, while the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ: DRIV) fell around 4%.

Rivian Key Metrics

The sharp divergence between the leveraged single-stock ETF and diversified funds highlights the impact of company-specific catalysts on concentrated investment products. While Rivian's positive outlook propelled RVNL to the top of the ETF leaderboard, diversified funds remained relatively stable due to their mixed holdings across automakers, battery manufacturers, and technology firms.